El Niño risk is rising across the equatorial Pacific, with regional agencies indicating a materially higher probability of conditions persisting into H2 2026. For palm oil, the key investment point is the production lag: rainfall deficits typically affect fresh fruit bunch output 618 months later, placing the main supply risk in late 2026 and 2027. With CPO already supported by tight Malaysian inventories, Indonesia’s B50 biodiesel mandate and emerging weather risk premium, we believe UK-listed plantation equities offer attractive exposure to a tightening supply backdrop. We retain BUY ratings on REA Holdings, M.P. Evans and Anglo-Eastern Plantations.