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  • 16 Jan 2026

2026 Preview: Transitioning From Capital Investment To Operational Execution, Expanded Downstream Growth, And A Higher-Quality Earnings Profile; Maintain $21 Price Target

  • Sidoti & Company
    • Daniel Harriman

    • 10 pages


 

We view 2026 as pivotal for Neo Performance Materials, marking the shift from a multiyear capital investment and portfolio repositioning phase toward operational execution, downstream earnings leverage, and improving free cash flow generation. Magnequench is positioned as the primary earnings driver entering 2026, supported by sustained growth in bonded magnets and powders; early commercial traction from the Narva, Estonia, sintered magnet facility; and increasing customer interest in securing non-Chinese magnet supply amid ongoing geopolitical and trade disruptions. Chemicals & Oxides enters 2026 with a more stable and higher-quality earnings base following the completion of the NAMCO relocation and the divestiture of lower-margin Chinese separation assets in recent years, positioning the segment for steady, regulation driven growth and margin normalization. We expect Rare Metals to remain an important contributor in 2026, albeit at normalized earnings levels versus 2024-2025 peak conditions. Aerospace and electronics demand remains firm and pricing, particularly for hafnium, remains volatile given episodic supply tightness and geopolitical sensitivity. Neo enters 2026 with improved balance sheet flexibility and declining capital intensity following the completion of its major growth projects, while retaining the capacity to fund additional investment, including potential Phase 1b expansion, as timing and returns become clearer. We maintain our $21 price target on Neo shares, which remains based on a 28x multiple applied to our 2027 adjusted EPS estimate of $0.75. We also maintain our moderate risk rating, which reflects Neo's balanced business mix, healthy balance sheet, and ability to navigate supply chain and geopolitical volatility.

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2026 Preview: Transitioning From Capital Investment To Operational Execution, Expanded Downstream Growth, And A Higher-Quality Earnings Profile; Maintain $21 Price Target

  • Published: 16 Jan 2026
  • Author: Daniel Harriman
  • Pages: 10
  • Sidoti & Company


We view 2026 as pivotal for Neo Performance Materials, marking the shift from a multiyear capital investment and portfolio repositioning phase toward operational execution, downstream earnings leverage, and improving free cash flow generation. Magnequench is positioned as the primary earnings driver entering 2026, supported by sustained growth in bonded magnets and powders; early commercial traction from the Narva, Estonia, sintered magnet facility; and increasing customer interest in securing non-Chinese magnet supply amid ongoing geopolitical and trade disruptions. Chemicals & Oxides enters 2026 with a more stable and higher-quality earnings base following the completion of the NAMCO relocation and the divestiture of lower-margin Chinese separation assets in recent years, positioning the segment for steady, regulation driven growth and margin normalization. We expect Rare Metals to remain an important contributor in 2026, albeit at normalized earnings levels versus 2024-2025 peak conditions. Aerospace and electronics demand remains firm and pricing, particularly for hafnium, remains volatile given episodic supply tightness and geopolitical sensitivity. Neo enters 2026 with improved balance sheet flexibility and declining capital intensity following the completion of its major growth projects, while retaining the capacity to fund additional investment, including potential Phase 1b expansion, as timing and returns become clearer. We maintain our $21 price target on Neo shares, which remains based on a 28x multiple applied to our 2027 adjusted EPS estimate of $0.75. We also maintain our moderate risk rating, which reflects Neo's balanced business mix, healthy balance sheet, and ability to navigate supply chain and geopolitical volatility.

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