• Biomass is the cash cow for now; BESS is the future – Renova’s early growth as an IPP was driven by high-margin FIT solar assets. Following a strategic withdrawal from offshore wind post-auction losses, the company has successfully pivoted to its stable biomass operations. From FY3/26 onwards, grid-scale energy storage will serve as the primary growth engine, with management targeting an 8.3% domestic market share by FY3/31. This accelerated pipeline rollout underpins the Medium-Term Management Plan 2030 targets of 5.0 GW gross capacity and ¥60.0bn in EBITDA. Upside to growth will be driven by overseas expansion and a shift to non-FIT revenues via corporate PPAs. Based on our NPV calculations, we see substantial upside room from the current market cap.
