As global markets go into meltdown over the potential for a global energy crisis, commodities analyst Gaius King from the Janus Analysis consultancy advises caution as he speaks to Donald Leggatt from Ticker TV.
Despite the market (over)reaction, he thinks it is possible the war may yet be over in a week or weeks, averting an energy crisis and any long-term inflationary effects.
The war is at a pivotal moment after the ageing and sick Ayatollah Ali Khamenei seemingly allowed himself to be martyred in line with Shia theological thinking. He has been replaced by his less well known son Mojtaba, a hardline Republican Guard leader who may yet be prepared to find a comprise deal with the US and Israel which allows the current Iranian regime to survive. The next week is critical.
The closure of the Gulf of Hormuz to LNG tankers from Qatar to Asia and oil tankers from Iran to China mean the main winners from this impasse are the energy self-sufficient US. Opening the Straits is not a priority for them therefore.
In an in-depth slide presentation and Q&A, Gaius King talks us through the history of previous wars, oil spikes and subsequent drops in value, and why he believes Gold has been overbought and may yet have further to fall.
Janus Analysis will be back to talk about Copper, Aluminium, Iron Ore and Zinc potentially entering a new Commodities Supercycle in a future episode.
Remember, the views expressed in this interview are for information purposes only, and nothing in this podcast constitutes a financial promotion, investment advice or personal recommendation.
