AG Barr’s H127 trading update confirms the robustness of the group’s multi-brand drinks portfolio, such that even with some temporary supply chain issues, the company is confident in delivering FY27E Adj. PBT expectations.
H127 revenues have risen c.8% to £246m, despite a £10m lost sales opportunity in Q2. This reflects growth in the core brands, market share wins and the integration of Fentimans and Frobishers Juices. H127 operating margin is expected to be c.15% and is projected to increase in H227.
Whilst the supply chain disruption is a negative surprise, we view AG Barr’s financial model of c.4%+ revenue growth p/a, 14%-16% operating margins and 19%-21% Adj. ROCE as underrated relative to peers on only c.12x cal 2027 PER.
We reiterate our 800p/ share Fair Value estimate, equating to 1.7x EV/Revenues, c.15.5x PER and a c.3% dividend yield (cal 2027).
