Gym Group reports its H1 Trading Update on 8 July 2026. We expect a constructive statement, consistent with management's positive tenor at the March finals; no forecast upgrades are anticipated at this juncture. Our analysis of a mooted £4bn David Lloyd listing implies ~10-11x FY27 EV/EBITDA suggesting GYM trades at a ~40% discount to a peer. Despite a strong YTD run (+42%), we see a compelling entry point: positive secular trends, continued share gains in low-cost, and risk to FY26 forecasts on the upside consensus implies ~20% drop-through; at 35%, still below recent delivered levels, EPS would be >7.5p vs the 5.5p base. Buy, 290p TP.
