We are revising our Brent price forecast to US$70/bbl for 2025 and to US$72.5/bbl for 2026 with US$75/bbl flat thereafter, from US$75/bbl held flat from 2025. Despite fears of oversupply there is little evidence of a glut emerging and evident pressure on US drilling signals the need for higher prices to maintain activity. We have also reduced our production forecast by c4% to reflect recent Jubilee underperformance. In combination, that leads to material reductions in our forecasts for 2025/26, although we continue to anticipate that Tullow has now returned to profitability with net debt falling. Our risked net asset value calculation drops to 53p, which is still five times the current share price and forward multiples remain exceptionally low. Successful refinancing would remove a key uncertainty that should allow the shares to trade significantly higher, we expect.
