Buy Fever-Tree the foundations of a >2x EPS recovery are falling into place. The US is the pivotal issue. Our work on beverage precedents identifies four drivers of partnership success: brand pull, category growth, equity alignment, and national reach Molson Coors has all four. This removes the distribution constraint, adding 430k accounts and national marketing. With a contracted profit floor bounding downside, upside is uncapped. The bear case misapplies cyclical spirits data, ignoring massive under-penetration (US at just 25% of UK share). The 29x FY26 P/E reflects a temporary partnership profit trough; the right anchor is 15.5x FY28 and 0.5x PEG on a 31% three-year CAGR. With ROCE expanding from 9% to 31%, the catalysts to re-engage are coming into view. We initiate with a Buy and SOTP TP of 1,180p.
