Morning Note – 30 May 2023

Morning Note – 20 April 2023

Morning Note – 13 April 2023

LendInvest - Strengthening and scaling through FY23

In today’s trading update, LendInvest has announced FY23 platform AuM growth of +21% to £2.6bn, record monthly applications for bridging loans in March, and that it expects to report FY23 results in line with market expectations. Through volatile market conditions, management has continued to strengthen the platform in H2, including HSBC and the British Business Bank providing up to £100m of funding to expand LendInvest’s development finance products, and the successful launch into the specialis

Morning Note – 17 January 2023

LendInvest - Leveraging its tech platform to scale in property finance (10 for 23 extract)

LendInvest’s investment case is focused upon scaling its proprietary, cloud-based fintech platform. H1 23 AuM of £2.4bn compares to £150bn of lending in its three current segments, expansion into three adjacent markets will expand the TAM to £500bn, and white-labelling the platform to generate SaaS revenue in the £1.1tn UK mainstream homeowner market, and new geographies, would transform the group’s financials. After the volatility caused by the UK mini-budget in September, we expect the group w

Solid H1 amidst weakening macro environment

LendInvest continued to grow and gain market share in H1 of FY23 (to 30 Sep 22), with AUM closing on £2.43bn, 33% up y-o-y (30 Sep 21: £1.83bn) and 13% up over the half-year (31 Mar 22: £2.15bn). In the four years since the end of H1-19, when AUM stood at £546m, AUM has grown by a compounded annual growth rate of 45%. And despite a worsening macro-economic environment, half-year financial results were also solid. H1 revenue fell 8% y-o-y from £46.3m to £42.5m; adjusted EBITDA grew 7% from £13.

Morning Note – 30 November 2022

LendInvest - Strong H1 PBT and FCF as the platform strengthens

LendInvest has reported H1 23 PBT of £14.8m, H1 underlying FCF of £11.4m, and reiterated FY23 guidance. H1 AuM growth of +33% yoy is in line with the October trading update, with growth across all lending products, including +44% from Buy-to-Let. FuM growth of +20% to £3.4bn provides c£1bn of headroom for future expansion, and includes a £180m financial partnership with Lloyds Bank. Gross profit grew +17% to £31.1m, and including opex ahead of the launch of the specialist homeowner product, adju

H1 AUM in line, capital headroom up, outlook slows

AUM ended H1 of FY23 (30 Sep 22) on £2.43bn, 33% up y-o-y (30 Sep 21: £1.83bn) and 13% up over the half-year (31 Mar 22: £2.15bn). While market data is not yet available to 30 Sep, it is obvious that LendInvest is continuing to rapidly gain market share. Lending products also continued to prove attractive to institutional investors. Funds under management (capital committed by investors) stood at £3.44bn on 30 Sep, up 17% over H1, which provides ample lending capital ‘headroom’ of £950m to fue

Morning Note – 10 October 2022

Morning Note – 15 August 2022

Strong growth, surging profits and maiden dividend

LINV has delivered strong top-line growth with AUM up 36% to £2.1bn and revenue up 21% to £88m. But the standout feature of these results was operational gearing boosting profitability with adj. EBITDA jumping 90% to £20.3m and PAT up 187% to £10.9m. LINV is financially well-armed to pursue further growth with a strong balance sheet and ample lending capital from institutional investors. Indeed the Board has also recommended a maiden dividend of 4.4p per share: a sure sign of confidence in t

Morning Note – 29 June 2022

CMD - Broadening & deepening client relationships

FLASH: In-line trading update

A dose of morosity

No change in the narrative. Aviva’s ship sails on as usual. The PRT business is still going well, inflation remains an impediment to a strong P&C improvement, retail customers seem more interested in the rising cost of living than savings’ products and Aviva investors see no real signs of an improvement. This is the same story as in recent quarters and, in that context, our thesis remains the same.

'Airlines will be shocked when Covid leases run out and rates go up’

In the Flow

Industry flows - bond funds remain preferred over equities Risk appetite for equity funds remained subdued with last week seeing $4bn net outflows (negative in 8 of the last 9 weeks). Flows worsened sequentially for Asia/EM categories, but improved for US and European equities. Bond funds saw inflows for a 10th straight week (c.$8bn) with broad based inflows across US government, IG and HY funds. Listed asset managers flows - inflows into ETFs, outflows from mutual funds ETFs net inflows contin

Cenkos: Duke Royalty Ltd -- Record revenues and more to come

Duke has released a Q1/24E trading update which points to a continuation of steady growth in recurring cash revenues and resilient underlying portfolio companies. Guidance for the quarter is for £6m of recurring cash revenues, and total cash revenues are expected to be c£7.5m once the buyout premium from Instor is accounted for. Duke's valuation looks very compelling at current levels with the FY24E dividend yield over 10% whilst being backed by FCF generation.

The Opportunity in Short-Termism

Fears vs Fundamentals (again) For 2 years, European banks have enjoyed potent earnings upgrades. For 2 years, valuations have been trapped between ''unease'' and ''outright panic'' multiples. This note looks at the latest fears and fundamentals behind this ongoing struggle. We extract lasting lessons from Q1, a record profit quarter, and extend our work on the fears of the moment: ''peak NIM'', CRE and credit contraction. Peak NIM - no, not yet We refresh our top-down margin work for the late

GenAI: How to Use It

You''ve been here before, right? Blockchain, the Metaverse - and now GenAI. Could this time really be different and the hype justified? The answer to this question is rooted in how GenAI can be used in the real world. In this report we thus challenge our sector teams to identify GenAI use-cases within their industries - and those companies likely to pioneer them. The result is perhaps the broadest consideration yet of how GenAI can diffuse through the economy. Efficiency is the common theme, pr

Critical Metals Plc - Molulu Operational Update - Target Price £1.14 ps

Event On the 15th May, Critical Metals plc released an operational update relating to their Molulu copper project in the DRC. Key Points 1. 6,500t of copper ore grading 3% copper has been mined 2. The mining focus is moving towards the high grade sulphide copper ore grading above 8.3% copper 3. No cobalt has been identified in the mining so far using hand-held XRF 4. Dewatering of the pits has begun with a trench decanting water from the small pit. Implications As soon as the road rehabilitation

NAHL Group plc: AGM update: Continued progress in scaling the business for future growth

NAHL’s AGM statement released today, is encouraging as management continues to scale the businesses for further growth. As a result, the Board’s expectations for the full year remain unchanged and we make no alterations to our forecasts. As a reminder, these still call for a c.13% increase in adjusted PBT in 2023, c.170% in FY24 and a further c.70% in FY25. Our current fair value remains at 65p but this is likely to rise as the Group delivers on its significant potential.

WH Ireland: Avation - Market tailwinds highlighted in Bloomberg Intelligence event

Avation is a lessor of 35 commercial aircraft to a diversified client base of 17 airlines. Yesterday's Bloomberg Intelligence webinar event entitled ‘Aircraft Lessor Recovery and Innovation' reaffirmed a number of positive market trends for aircraft lessors at the present time. Key points included: i) structural deficits in the supply of turboprop aircraft in the coming years, with aircraft retirements expected to outpace limited production of new aircraft; ii) the strong recovery in air travel

Early Mover in UK Lab-grown Meat

BSF Enterprise Plc (BSF) is a biotechnology company focused on acquiring, combining, and building businesses in the lab-grown tissue space. It aims to achieve this through an acquisition-led growth strategy and has already acquired the tissue engineering and cellular agriculture company, 3D Bio Tissues.

LSE AIM - Market Screener (30 May 2023)

 The market capitalization of AIM stocks was £95.9bn as of 26 May 2023, down 3.7% since 14 April 2023. Among the top YTD winners, there were Celadon Pharmaceuticals (up 216.6%), Vast Resources (+325% YTD), B90 Holdings (+212.4%), Verditek (209.1%, MktCap £7.5mn), Star Phoenix Group (+175%), Inspecs Group (+166.3%). Among the bottom movers, were companies canceling admission to AIM: Applied Graphene Materials (-88%,), Circle Property (-93%, MktCap £1.2mn), Purplebricks Group (-93.1% on a possi

Very strong CY22 - CY23 upgraded 10%

Trading update indicates strong FY23 performance