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Cardinal Energy (CJ-TSX); BUY, C$3.50 | Cenovus Energy (CVE-TSX); BUY, C$15.50
Companies: Cardinal Energy Ltd. (CJ:TSE)Cenovus Energy Inc. (CVE:TSE)
Production of 20,407 boe/d was in line with both GMPFE and consensus estimates of 20,312 boe/d and 20,530 boe/d, respectively, as the company largely kept production flat due to the Alberta production curtailments.
Companies: Cardinal Energy Ltd.
Production of 20,365 boe/d (87% liquids) was in line with expectations as it was discussed previously in the 2018 reserve update earlier this month. (HYPERLINK to our Comment dated March 7)
Cardinal has unveiled its 2019e capital budget, one which sees the company investing $47mm to maintain volumes between 20,400- 20,800 boe/d, which remains consistent with the level mandated by the current Alberta curtailments. Management anticipates excess cash generation of $29 -$39 mm beyond capex and current dividend payouts, with which it will prioritize debt repayment, operating efficiencies and dividend sustainability ahead.
Cardinal’s Board of Directors has approved a temporary 71% reduction to its dividend to $0.01/sh (down from $0.035/sh) prior, reflective of a ~4.2% yield (as of the December 6th close).
Production of 20,949 boe/d (87% liquids) was reasonably in line with both GMPFE and consensus estimates of 21,522 boe/d and 21,280 boe/d, respectively. Funds flow of ~$27.1 mm was shy, albeit in a minor fashion, of both GMPFE and consensus expectations of ~$28.7 mm and ~$30 mm, respectively.
Cardinal announced 4Q17 results which were generally in line with expectations, as production of 20,948 boe/d and funds flow of $28.6 mm, or $0.26/sh, largely tracked GMP FE and consensus estimates. While full reserve disclosures have not been provided as of yet, FD&A and F&D performance markers of $10.76/boe and $12.67/boe were disclosed, signalling attractive additions costs focused on light oil assets. There were no further updates surrounding further asset dispositions beyond the $24 mm in
Cardinal’s 2Q16e production was 3% ahead of our forecast while CFPS also beat by 19% (or 13% higher than consensus). Management is increasing its base 2016e capital budget by $10 mm (to $35 mm) which, in combination with an expanded Bantry program after continued success, will drive 4Q16e volumes of 15,100 boe/d which improves by 3% over the prior guidance. In June the Company’s LMR was 1.69 and was subsequently increased to 1.75 in July at no cost. With a modest increase to its abandonment budg
Some Recovery on Segmented Cash Flow Generation Over Q1 Though Still Down 56% Y/Y. In aggregate, the Intermediate, Mid, and Small Cap groups are expected to generate 2Q16e cash flow of $1,281 mm, $183 mm, and $53 mm, or $1.517 billion in total, that while depressed relative to the same period last year (~$2.647 billion combined), is up 17% sequentially from the prior quarter, largely on the strength of crude oil price recovery in the period. Severely weak natural gas pricing picture markedly rev
Companies: ARX 0UG9 TNZ BTE BNP BNE CJ CKE 0UR7 CR DEE ERF GXE IKM JOY KEL MQL NVA PPY POU PGF PWT PMT PRQ 0VCO PNE PSK RMP RRX SKX SGY TVE TOU TVETF VET WCP YO TET SPE LTS
With this publication we highlight forecast revisions associated with our commodity price update (Natural Gas Update; Crude Oil Update), reaffirming a view of commodity price recovery in 2017e. In the interim until then, 2016e Canadian oil price realizations are up ~11% in the synthetic and Edmonton Light streams, with heavy WCS crude up ~20% which is amplified by Canadian oilsands output curtailments. While 2016e Canadian natural gas prices are projected to be ~20% lower, we expect much of this
Companies: ARX CJ 0UR7 ERF PPY POU TOU
We are updating our estimates after coming off research restriction following our participation in Cardinal’s $67 mm equity financing, wherein the Company issued
7.15 mm shares at $9.35 per share. Post-financing, Cardinal solidifies an already peer group leading balance sheet and sustainability outlook, which will enable the Company to expand opportunities in its core operating areas through opportunistic tuck-in acquisitions while continuing to advance both organic growth efforts and pursue l
Cardinal’s 1Q16 volumes of 14,245 boe/d overlaid our estimates while CFPS of $0.12 was ahead of our call of $0.10 and inline with consensus at $0.12 per share. Strong operational performance saw the Company, once again, reduce operating costs with 1Q16 figures coming in >$2.00/boe lower than those reported in 4Q15 when they acquired the Mitsue assets. The Company continues layering in hedges to protect its capital program and dividend payout, helping to solidify Cardinal as the most sustainable
Impact: Neutral to slightly positive. In a relatively quiet quarter of operations, Cardinal managed to lower its unit operating costs 9% q/q , which we view as noteworthy given the inclusion of the higher cost Mitsue asset.
With this publication we briefly summarize our projections for 1Q16e quarterly results for the Junior E&P (Intermediate, Mid & Small Cap) segments of our coverage universe
Companies: ARX 0UG9 TNZ BTE BNP BNE CJ CKE 0UR7 CR DEE ERF GXE IKM JOY KEL ROAOF MQL NVA PPY POU PGF PMT 0VCO PNE PSK RMP RRX SKX SGY TVE TOU TVETF VET WCP YGR YO RE/ TET SPE LRE LTS
With this publication we highlight various metrics and statistics forthcoming from yearend reserve books for our Domestic E&P coverage universe (Integrateds, Large Cap, Oilsands, Intermediate, Mid Cap, and Small Cap). Similar charts for YE2014 reserves can be found in our Statistical Package dated April 7, 2015.
Companies: ARX 0UG9 TNZ BTE BNP BNE BXO CJ CKE 0UR7 ERF GXE IKM KEL MQL NVA PPY POU PGF PWT PMT 0VCO RMP RRX SKX SGY TVE TXP TVETF VET WCP YGR YO TET LRE LTS PNE
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Companies: Trident Royalties Plc
• The US$2.7 mm cash position at the end of June is in line with our expectations.
• Although inflation across the industry and rig availability had complicated and delayed the finalization of a farm-in agreement for Anchois in Morocco, negotiations on partnering are in the final stages. A partner could be announced very soon.
• Progress has been made across the portfolio. Onshore Morocco, permitting is under way with drilling now expected to start in early 2024 with up to four wells. Prospects
Companies: Chariot Limited
Diversified reported strong interim results, with production that was marginally below our estimate more than outweighed by tight cost control to deliver EBITDA ahead of our forecast; we broadly retain our FY23 estimates.
Companies: Diversified Energy Company PLC
Companies: Savannah Energy Plc
We believe that the outlook for Pantheon Resources is significantly improving.
Companies: Pantheon Resources plc
Companies: Touchstone Exploration Inc
Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) results in H1 2023 follow a record prior comparable period, with the swing between the two primarily due to commodity price performance. H1 2023 net revenue of US$93.6m was down 18% YoY, EBITDA of US$48.9m was down 35% YoY. COGS was up 9.8% YoY given global inflationary pressures. Other charges on the P&L were minimal particularly now CAML is debt free. Owing to the timing of tax charges and some unfavourable working capital movements which we expect to be resolved
Companies: Central Asia Metals Plc
Bushveld Minerals (“BMN”) has released its results for H1 2023 having already released production of 1,784t at a weighted average cash cost of US$26.6/kgV, with H1 sales of 2,096tV through destocking during the period. Revenue for the period was US$78.4m, with adj EBITDA of US$10.3m and attributable NPAT of -US$14m. The company finished H1 with US$3.7m of cash and US$90.7m of debt. We expect H2 production of 1,992tV, split between 925tV from Vanchem and 1,067tV from Vametco, bringing full year p
Companies: Bushveld Minerals Limited
Hannam & Partners
Companies: Shanta Gold Limited
Bushveld delivered as robust a financial performance as could reasonably be expected in H1 2023 given the operational challenges faced. We are encouraged by the reported progress made at both Vametco and Vanchem since, and vanadium price aside (current prices are soft, and pose a downside risk if they do not recover in-line with our assumptions) we think Bushveld is broadly on course to meet our full-year estimates. But given its stressed balance sheet, concluding the refinancing of its c.US$45m
Alternative Resource Capital
The partnering process at Anchois is now close to a conclusion, with farm-out negotiations in their final stages. The FEED phase of the Anchois gas development was completed in March, with Chariot continuing to make progress across all the Anchois technical and commercial workstreams. Post period, Chariot added the synergistic, low-cost, low-risk Loukos Onshore licence. Loukos Onshore contains several near-term drilling opportunities, which, if successful could lead to fast-tracked gas productio
Companies: Castings PLC