Last week's guidance from industry bellwether Deere & Company (NYSE: DE, NC) portends continued weakness in the ag OEM market, with DE forecasting a 15%-20% volume decline in U.S. and Canadian large ag equipment in F2026 (ending October).
However we expect TWI can withstand further farm demand pressure, as it benefits from its significant aftermarket position, driven by its well established Titan and Goodyear (NASDAQ: GT, NC) tire brands, new product developments (including low sidewall [LSW] tires) and its strong dealer network.
We also model modest growth in Earthmoving/Construction (EMC) and Consumer, supported by further anticipated interest rate cuts and as TWI extends its Goodyear licensing agreement to include lawn and garden equipment.
The stock's valuation remains compelling; it currently trades below book value, even as the company has improved margins and the balance sheet over the last five years, supported in part by the 2024 addition of Carlstar.
Strong cash flow drove net leverage back under 4x at the end of 3Q:25, with net debt declining $28 million sequentially.
We model leverage under 2x by the end of 2027, supported by gradual cash flow improvement and rising profitability.
We expect a broad China-U.S. trade agreement including ag exports to be a key potential catalyst in 2026.
As a result, we only modestly trim our 2026 EPS estimate and bump our 2027 EPS forecast up slightly. In our view, crop price recovery will drive a solid rebound in results by 2027.
Our $10 price target is based on 12x our unchanged 2027 free cash flow per share estimate of $0.84. Our moderate risk rating is supported by the company's strong customer relationships, broad brand name recognition and expectations for growing cash flow and declining leverage as Titan's end markets recover.
01 Dec 2025
In Our 2026 Outlook We Expect Soft Ag OEM Demand Will Be Offset By Continued Aftermarket Strength And Modest Growth In Earthmoving And Consumer; Maintain $10 Price Target
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In Our 2026 Outlook We Expect Soft Ag OEM Demand Will Be Offset By Continued Aftermarket Strength And Modest Growth In Earthmoving And Consumer; Maintain $10 Price Target
Titan International (TWI:NYSE) | 0 0 0.0%
- Published:
01 Dec 2025 -
Author:
Steve Ferazani, CFA -
Pages:
10 -
Last week's guidance from industry bellwether Deere & Company (NYSE: DE, NC) portends continued weakness in the ag OEM market, with DE forecasting a 15%-20% volume decline in U.S. and Canadian large ag equipment in F2026 (ending October).
However we expect TWI can withstand further farm demand pressure, as it benefits from its significant aftermarket position, driven by its well established Titan and Goodyear (NASDAQ: GT, NC) tire brands, new product developments (including low sidewall [LSW] tires) and its strong dealer network.
We also model modest growth in Earthmoving/Construction (EMC) and Consumer, supported by further anticipated interest rate cuts and as TWI extends its Goodyear licensing agreement to include lawn and garden equipment.
The stock's valuation remains compelling; it currently trades below book value, even as the company has improved margins and the balance sheet over the last five years, supported in part by the 2024 addition of Carlstar.
Strong cash flow drove net leverage back under 4x at the end of 3Q:25, with net debt declining $28 million sequentially.
We model leverage under 2x by the end of 2027, supported by gradual cash flow improvement and rising profitability.
We expect a broad China-U.S. trade agreement including ag exports to be a key potential catalyst in 2026.
As a result, we only modestly trim our 2026 EPS estimate and bump our 2027 EPS forecast up slightly. In our view, crop price recovery will drive a solid rebound in results by 2027.
Our $10 price target is based on 12x our unchanged 2027 free cash flow per share estimate of $0.84. Our moderate risk rating is supported by the company's strong customer relationships, broad brand name recognition and expectations for growing cash flow and declining leverage as Titan's end markets recover.