Regional REIT - Maintaining high dividend distribution

Regional REIT (RGL) has declared a Q123 DPS of 1.65p, unchanged on Q122 and in line with our forecasts on a fully covered basis. Rent collection continues to be strong and leasing progress has maintained occupancy. Consistent with the trend of more employees returning to office working for longer periods, RGL says the level of enquiries from prospective customers remains encouraging.

Regional REIT - Covered dividend with a 12% yield

Regional REIT (RGL) delivered a good income performance in FY22, led by strong leasing (well above pre-pandemic levels) and continued strong rent collection. DPS of 6.6p was fully covered and we forecast the same for FY23. Market-wide valuation yield widening reduced NAV and increased gearing, but RGL notes that it has ample headroom available across its debt facilities, which are fixed at a cost of 3.5%. In this note we explain why we think DPS is sustainable and review some of the key issues t

Regional REIT - FY22 DPS covered and yields c 11% yield

Regional REIT (RGL) has confirmed a Q422 DPS of 1.65p, taking the total for the year to 6.6p. It expects this to be fully covered by EPRA earnings when results are published in March, supported by leasing progress and strong rent collection. Market-wide valuation yield widening reduced NAV and increased gearing, but RGL notes that it has ample headroom available across the debt facilities, which are fixed at a cost of 3.5%.

QuotedData’s Real Estate Monthly Roundup – January 2023

Performance - 2022 ended with another difficult month for property companies as the sector continues to get to grips with the impact of higher interest rates. There were several funds that performed well during December, however, with secondary shopping centre landlord Capital & Regional top of the pile. For a second month on the trot Home REIT saw its share price tank after it came under attack from a short seller in November. Valuation moves - It was a mixed bag for valuations, with six-month

QuotedData’s Real Estate Monthly Roundup – January 2023

Performance - 2022 ended with another difficult month for property companies as the sector continues to get to grips with the impact of higher interest rates. There were several funds that performed well during December, however, with secondary shopping centre landlord Capital & Regional top of the pile. For a second month on the trot Home REIT saw its share price tank after it came under attack from a short seller in November. Valuation moves - It was a mixed bag for valuations, with six-month

Regional REIT - Operational progress supports DPS

Regional REIT’s (RGL) Q322 DPS declared of 1.65p is in line with its target of 6.6p for the year (+3%). Despite a deteriorating economic environment, Q322 operational progress included strong leasing activity, good tenant retention, an increase in occupancy and continuing strong rent collection. With all debt fixed/hedged for almost five years, interest costs are unaffected by rising interest rates, although higher bond yields are having a negative impact on asset values across the broad UK mark

Regional REIT - Continuing to deliver income-led returns

With pandemic restrictions lifted and the return to work underway, Regional REIT’s (RGL) H122 results show good and continuing operational progress. The sharp rise in energy prices affected property costs, but this should moderate with government support measures. Combined with income seasonality and fully fixed/hedged borrowing costs, RGL expects a stronger H222 performance and reiterated its full-year DPS target of 6.6p.

Regional REIT - Acquisitions are accretive and portfolio enhancing

Regional REIT (RGL) has announced the acquisition of three high-quality, recently refurbished office assets, with good environmental credentials, for an aggregate £26.5m, reflecting an accretive net initial yield of 8.0%. Across its portfolio, as the ‘return to the office’ builds, RGL expects a positive demand-supply balance for attractive regional offices to generate further value creation, despite economic and political challenges. This is based on the expectation of rental growth and increase

Regional REIT - Return to the office gathers momentum

This note focuses on the outlook for income-driven returns from Regional REIT (RGL). With the ‘return to the office’ accelerating, RGL expects a positive demand-supply balance to generate rental growth, increased occupancy and valuation gains. Q122 DPS increased c 3% to 1.65p. Income risk is mitigated by portfolio diversification, while fully fixed or hedged borrowing costs protect against further interest rate increases.

Regional REIT - Well positioned for an office recovery

In a challenging environment Regional REIT (RGL) performed well in FY21, increasing earnings and dividends, and continuing income-led positive returns. It also made strong strategic progress, achieving its focus on regional offices, for which it expects a strengthening recovery, while building additional scale and diversification.

Regional REIT - FY21 DPS target met, confirming attractive yield

Regional REIT (RGL) has declared a Q421 DPS of 1.7p, taking the total for the year to 6.5p, which we forecast will be fully covered by EPRA earnings reported when the results to 31 December 2021 (FY21) are reported on 29 March. The attractive dividend yield of 7.4% is one of the highest in the UK REIT sector and RGL believes the office sector is poised for recovery.

Regional REIT - Positioning for growth

Despite the pandemic and its impact on office occupation, Regional REIT’s (RGL) H121 performance was robust. A stand-out feature was the continuing strong rent collection, underpinning the high level of income distribution. The portfolio has been repositioned for earnings and dividend growth from good quality, affordable regional offices, with RGL expecting a steady near-term performance and acceleration from late 2022.

CMD - Broadening & deepening client relationships

A dose of morosity

No change in the narrative. Aviva’s ship sails on as usual. The PRT business is still going well, inflation remains an impediment to a strong P&C improvement, retail customers seem more interested in the rising cost of living than savings’ products and Aviva investors see no real signs of an improvement. This is the same story as in recent quarters and, in that context, our thesis remains the same.

'Airlines will be shocked when Covid leases run out and rates go up’

The Opportunity in Short-Termism

Fears vs Fundamentals (again) For 2 years, European banks have enjoyed potent earnings upgrades. For 2 years, valuations have been trapped between ''unease'' and ''outright panic'' multiples. This note looks at the latest fears and fundamentals behind this ongoing struggle. We extract lasting lessons from Q1, a record profit quarter, and extend our work on the fears of the moment: ''peak NIM'', CRE and credit contraction. Peak NIM - no, not yet We refresh our top-down margin work for the late

In the Flow

Industry flows - bond funds remain preferred over equities Risk appetite for equity funds remained subdued with last week seeing $4bn net outflows (negative in 8 of the last 9 weeks). Flows worsened sequentially for Asia/EM categories, but improved for US and European equities. Bond funds saw inflows for a 10th straight week (c.$8bn) with broad based inflows across US government, IG and HY funds. Listed asset managers flows - inflows into ETFs, outflows from mutual funds ETFs net inflows contin

Morning Note – 30 May 2023

NAHL Group plc: AGM update: Continued progress in scaling the business for future growth

NAHL’s AGM statement released today, is encouraging as management continues to scale the businesses for further growth. As a result, the Board’s expectations for the full year remain unchanged and we make no alterations to our forecasts. As a reminder, these still call for a c.13% increase in adjusted PBT in 2023, c.170% in FY24 and a further c.70% in FY25. Our current fair value remains at 65p but this is likely to rise as the Group delivers on its significant potential.

WH Ireland: Avation - Market tailwinds highlighted in Bloomberg Intelligence event

Avation is a lessor of 35 commercial aircraft to a diversified client base of 17 airlines. Yesterday's Bloomberg Intelligence webinar event entitled ‘Aircraft Lessor Recovery and Innovation' reaffirmed a number of positive market trends for aircraft lessors at the present time. Key points included: i) structural deficits in the supply of turboprop aircraft in the coming years, with aircraft retirements expected to outpace limited production of new aircraft; ii) the strong recovery in air travel

Early Mover in UK Lab-grown Meat

BSF Enterprise Plc (BSF) is a biotechnology company focused on acquiring, combining, and building businesses in the lab-grown tissue space. It aims to achieve this through an acquisition-led growth strategy and has already acquired the tissue engineering and cellular agriculture company, 3D Bio Tissues.

Very strong CY22 - CY23 upgraded 10%

Trading update indicates strong FY23 performance

An Asian exploration

We spent last week with HSBC and STAN in Hong Kong and Singapore, delving into the detail of structural drivers for Asia. Both banks have a good story to tell, with business models that are well positioned and being enhanced further. In isolation we did not learn enough to warrant a change in recommendation but tailwinds from the region are not to be overlooked. A deep dive into a core part of the investment case Asia sits at the core of the investment case for both HSBC and STAN given its share

c.60% discount to NAV... Can deep value prevail?

Petershill (PHP) reported a Q1-23 double digit % headline miss on FRE/DE mostly driven by cyclical factors. However, fundraising was resilient including more closings after quarter end and PHP reiterated FY2023 guidance ($220-250m FRE). We remain outperform, 250p target price. Weakness on headline earnings amid a muted industry backdrop Private markets are being tested in 2023 with private equity deal activity down c.50-80% y/y. In this context, the headline Q1 miss was mostly driven by cyclica

Revisiting the key debates

In this note, we revisit the key debates on ICG following FY23 results. ICG reported a +5% FMC PBT beat vs. csus. driven by lower costs and better than expected investment company returns in H2. We continue to see a more attractive risk/reward for the shares but remain neutral for now. Deployment and fundraising resilient in a challenging market backdrop Debate with investors has focussed on whether private debt focussed ICG can benefit as banks tighten/retrench from lending to private equity b

XPS CMD articulates growth potential