UBM Development - Reinvented business model

In response to COVID-19, UBM Development shifted its strategic focus away from hotels to residential and office real estate, with particular emphasis on ESG principles. Consequently, its €2.3bn pipeline as at end-2020 (vs €2.5bn at end-2019) included €1.25bn in residential projects (covering 3,000+ units) and €750m in ‘new type’ office investments after it re-classified all hotel projects in pre-construction stage. Hotels already under construction are scheduled for completion in FY21 but are un

A quality Events business to be swallowed by Informa

UBM produced satisfactory FY 17 results with total revenue up 16.2% on a reported basis (reflecting the Allword integration) to £1,002.9m in line with recent guidance of about £1bn. Revenues were up +4.1% underlying, driven by annual events, up 5.3% organically (guidance was for at least +5%) compared to +3.1% in FY16. Adjusted OP reached £294.2m (AV: £281m), reflecting a solid 210bp margin improvement to 29.3% and ahead of our own c.28% forecast. Diluted adjusted EPS increased by 34.5% to 53.

Ahead of a wedding with Informa!

Informa (£6bn market capitalisation) has just officially announced a bid for rival and competitor UBM (£3bn capitalisation) whose shareholders will each be offered 1.083 Informa shares and 163p in cash. Informa will hold 65.5% of the new firm, with UBM owning 34.5%. Note that Informa has said that the Boards of the two companies are expected to approve the deal. The latter will create an events giant as UBM is the world no.2 events organiser behind RELX.

Final year of the three-year plan

UBM reported H1 17 revenue of £448.4m, up by 18% or +8.3% at CER. Organic growth reached +1.9%, of which +2.7% for Events and -2.1% for Online and Marketing Services 5OMS). The consolidated adjusted OP rose by 19.6% to £111.7m, i.e. a margin improving by 30 bps to 24.9% from 24.6% (note that the medium term goal is for 30% i.e. 280bps above the FY16 level). Adjusted earnings were 23.6% higher at £77.5m, with diluted adjusted EPS rising by 37.3% to 19.5p (+27.5% at CER). FCF pre-dividend improv

A pure-play events business which is delivering

UBM produced satisfactory FY 16 results with continuing revenue up 12.1% to £863m, more or less in line with our forecasts (£858m) with Events up 3.1% underlying. Total revenues were boosted by a significant forex impact (+£92m or 11.9%; sterling weakness linked) as well as £26.1m or 3.4% coming from the perimeter impact and were nearly flat at CER (+0.1%). Continuing adjusted OP rose by 19.2% to £234.8m (+£37.m after +£31.3m from forex and -£12.3m due to the down biennial year impact at Events

Acquiring a pure-play events business

UBM announced in mid-December the acquisition of Allworld Exhibitions, a leading privately-owned Asian exhibitions business (250 employees) for a cash consideration valuing the business at US$485m. The deal will be fully debt-funded with existing credit facilities and a new $365m bridge facility to be replaced with new longer term debt in due course.

N+1 Singer - UBM - In-line trading update

In a short trading update UBM confirms it has continued to perform in line with expectations. Major event performances since the Interims appear to be on trend and acquisitions are also on plan. The company signals no change to the trading outlook. In our last comment we highlighted the immediate value in the stock and it has performed well (+11.4%) as expected. We also commented that there was further upside to forecasts if FX rates held (our existing estimates are based on $1.32 vs spot of c1.

Focus remains on “Events First” implementation

Reporting its H1 16 results at end-July, UBM confirmed that the full-year trading outlook was unchanged, except for the positive forex impact linked to sterling’s weakness (only 10% of total revenues in the UK), with more coming through over the important H2 period. Beyond currency, management expects little direct impact from Brexit on its businesses. The group otherwise produced satisfactory H1 16 results with continuing revenue up 8% to £380m (after a +6.5% impact from forex) and +1% organic

N+1 Singer - MS - Media - BREXIT Potential Impacts and Thoughts

There are two main issues to consider for the Media sector, UK recession and currency. Large and mid-cap B2B is likely to be a net beneficiary of sterling weakness as they are heavily exposed to US$, while exposure amongst small cap B2Bs is typically modest but may well be enough to offset any domestic weakness. B2B looks a good safe haven and Informa (TP690p, Hold) and UBM (TP605p, Buy) look good value. Marketing Services is a barbell subsector; WPP’s might overseas and in its offering will pro

Completion of PRNewswire disposal

UBM today released the final details regarding the return to shareholders in the aftermath of the PRNewswire disposal (please refer to our 22 March 2016 Latest) to Cision, controlled by GTCR Canyon Holdings Cayman L.P.

Morning Song

Redcentric (RCN LN) Core holding which will keep on delivering | UBM (UBM LN) PRN disposal closed!

PRN disposal closed!

After 6 months of delays the disposal is finally closed. Investors will see half of the £490m net proceeds returned via a special dividend of 55.3p per share (register date 24th June, ex-dividend date 27th June and paid 8 July). The shares will then be consolidated (8 for 9), UBM will now have a much purer profile with Events (mostly trade exhibitions) being the key proposition. On a cum dividend basis the stock trades on 12.1x FY16 and 9.6x FY17 EV/EBITDA or just under 11x average for theFY16/1

First year of implementing the Events First Strategy

UBM produced FY15 results globally in line with revenues for continuing operations (PRN newswire treated as a discontinued operation) amounting to c.£770m (comparable FY14: £550.5m), down 2% on an underlying basis (up c.£219m reported on a comparable basis after +c.£180m net acquisitions impact, +c.£27m biennial impact and +c.£26m forex). The adjusted operating margin for continuing improved to 25.6% compared with 24.5% on a comparable basis a year earlier, despite £7.4m of strategic opex and £5

CMD - Broadening & deepening client relationships

A dose of morosity

No change in the narrative. Aviva’s ship sails on as usual. The PRT business is still going well, inflation remains an impediment to a strong P&C improvement, retail customers seem more interested in the rising cost of living than savings’ products and Aviva investors see no real signs of an improvement. This is the same story as in recent quarters and, in that context, our thesis remains the same.

'Airlines will be shocked when Covid leases run out and rates go up’

Morning Note – 24 May 2023

The Opportunity in Short-Termism

Fears vs Fundamentals (again) For 2 years, European banks have enjoyed potent earnings upgrades. For 2 years, valuations have been trapped between ''unease'' and ''outright panic'' multiples. This note looks at the latest fears and fundamentals behind this ongoing struggle. We extract lasting lessons from Q1, a record profit quarter, and extend our work on the fears of the moment: ''peak NIM'', CRE and credit contraction. Peak NIM - no, not yet We refresh our top-down margin work for the late

In the Flow

Industry flows - bond funds remain preferred over equities Risk appetite for equity funds remained subdued with last week seeing $4bn net outflows (negative in 8 of the last 9 weeks). Flows worsened sequentially for Asia/EM categories, but improved for US and European equities. Bond funds saw inflows for a 10th straight week (c.$8bn) with broad based inflows across US government, IG and HY funds. Listed asset managers flows - inflows into ETFs, outflows from mutual funds ETFs net inflows contin

Morning Note – 30 May 2023

NAHL Group plc: AGM update: Continued progress in scaling the business for future growth

NAHL’s AGM statement released today, is encouraging as management continues to scale the businesses for further growth. As a result, the Board’s expectations for the full year remain unchanged and we make no alterations to our forecasts. As a reminder, these still call for a c.13% increase in adjusted PBT in 2023, c.170% in FY24 and a further c.70% in FY25. Our current fair value remains at 65p but this is likely to rise as the Group delivers on its significant potential.

WH Ireland: Avation - Market tailwinds highlighted in Bloomberg Intelligence event

Avation is a lessor of 35 commercial aircraft to a diversified client base of 17 airlines. Yesterday's Bloomberg Intelligence webinar event entitled ‘Aircraft Lessor Recovery and Innovation' reaffirmed a number of positive market trends for aircraft lessors at the present time. Key points included: i) structural deficits in the supply of turboprop aircraft in the coming years, with aircraft retirements expected to outpace limited production of new aircraft; ii) the strong recovery in air travel

This Week's AIM Highlights 19th May

Early Mover in UK Lab-grown Meat

BSF Enterprise Plc (BSF) is a biotechnology company focused on acquiring, combining, and building businesses in the lab-grown tissue space. It aims to achieve this through an acquisition-led growth strategy and has already acquired the tissue engineering and cellular agriculture company, 3D Bio Tissues.

Very strong CY22 - CY23 upgraded 10%

An Asian exploration

We spent last week with HSBC and STAN in Hong Kong and Singapore, delving into the detail of structural drivers for Asia. Both banks have a good story to tell, with business models that are well positioned and being enhanced further. In isolation we did not learn enough to warrant a change in recommendation but tailwinds from the region are not to be overlooked. A deep dive into a core part of the investment case Asia sits at the core of the investment case for both HSBC and STAN given its share

c.60% discount to NAV... Can deep value prevail?

Petershill (PHP) reported a Q1-23 double digit % headline miss on FRE/DE mostly driven by cyclical factors. However, fundraising was resilient including more closings after quarter end and PHP reiterated FY2023 guidance ($220-250m FRE). We remain outperform, 250p target price. Weakness on headline earnings amid a muted industry backdrop Private markets are being tested in 2023 with private equity deal activity down c.50-80% y/y. In this context, the headline Q1 miss was mostly driven by cyclica

Trading update indicates strong FY23 performance