More advantages than drawbacks from the market uncertainty

Despite the tough environment, Legal & General is capitalizing on the need for companies to transfer pension liabilities. The group has exceeded expectations in its larger segments: LGRI and LGC, but has encountered challenges within the Retail and LGIM business. This outcome can be attributed to the uncertain outlook in the UK, which bolsters the company’s performance in its core business but negatively impacts other areas.

Uncertain outlook comes as no surprise

We take a positive view of Legal & General’s FY 22 results. Despite the tough environment, the Group managed to outperform expectations – something which was hardly a given for such a large asset manager. With L&G being widely exposed to the UK economy, it might be a call one does not want to make but the firm’s business remains one of spreads – as long as a default does not occur. We remain positive but concede that L&G embeds more risk than we had assumed.

Safe haven in a nightmarish environment?

After an incredibly volatile past week, Legal & General released an update clarifying its financials and objectives for FY 22. In all, L&G has been reassuring on the impact of the turmoil surrounding the Gilt market and LDI pensions, while it seems that failing schemes would ”only” impact pensioners rather than L&G directly.

Sustainably robust results which we expect to trigger distributions

Legal & General disclosed strong HY 22 results, albeit in line with the consensus’ expectations. With most of the metrics improving on a yoy and sequential basis, we believe that the strong solvency position, in an environment with (sustainable?) higher yields, should trigger capital distributions to shareholders at the year-end.

Improving rates environment in the UK drive the recovery

Legal & General’s performance in its H1 21 release came with a certain satisfaction. Most of it is attributable to an improving rates environment and strong performances, finally, from LGC and LGI.

Low interest rates wipe out operating resilience

L&G reported an operating profit from continuing divisions (excluding Mature Savings and General Insurance businesses) of £1,128m, -2.2% yoy. The COVID-19-related cost was £129m. LGR posted a growing operating profit to £721m. Net profit amounted to £290m vs. £874m a year before, being affected by the reduced discount rate used to calculate LGI reserves. The Solvency II ratio stood at 173%. The Board recommended an interim dividend of 4.93p/share, stable relative to H1 19.

No major problems so far

L&G posted a rare update of its main figures in Q1 20, as it usually only releases half-year results. The company said it is in a good shape, with a developing Pension Risk Transfer business (transactions of £1.2bn with a business pipeline of £26bn). Annuity sales are growing and the asset management business recorded net inflows of £10.6bn. The insurer will issue Tier 2 subordianted debt and said its capital position remains solid. This announcement confirms our estimates for the 2020 performan

Resilient business model

L&G released operating profit from continuing divisions of £2,514m, up 17% yoy. All business units posted an upward trend in earnings. The profit excludes the mortality release of £155m and the Mature Savings and General Insurance businesses (£11m). Net profit stood at £1,834m. The proposed dividend is 12.64p/share, bringing the annual dividend to 17.57p. The Solvency II ratio stood at 184%. We keep our positive opinion on L&G, the business model of which allows it to benefit from increasing num

The decline in Solvency is not a concern

L&G’s operating earnings improved significantly in the H1 19 (5.6% to £1,005m). This performance was better than expected. The insurer will revise its mortality hypothesis in the H2 with an additional £200m on operating earnings by the end of the year. The reduction in the capital position is not particularly a source of concerns and it should recover in the H2. The increased interim dividend to 4.93p/share and the growing business confirm the solidity of the Group.

Better earnings, in part thanks to life expectancy changes

L&G reported FY18 operating profit from divisions of £2,231m, 1% above estimates. All business lines posted an improvement in profitability, mainly L&G Retirement which recorded a 21.8% increase in its operating earnings to £1,115m. AuM crossed the threshold of £1tn. Net profit reached £1,827m, -3% yoy, as the prior year recorded a one-off US tax benefit of £246m, and perfectly in line with estimates. The proposed final dividend is 11.82p. We keep our positive opinion on the company.

Another non-core business to sell

According to Sky News, L&G has instructed Fenchurch Advisory Partners to sell its general insurance business. This is a small business unit that has no significant impact on the insurer’s operating earnings. The revealed valuation matches our figures. However, this sale may be difficult to achieve, as the general insurance market remains tough.

Good news for H2 18

L&G reported an operating profit of £909m, up 5% year-on-year. Except for General Insurance, all business lines posted an improvement in profitability. The Solvency II surplus reached £6.9bn and the coverage ratio stood at 193%. The Board recommended an interim dividend of 4.6p/share vs. 4.3p the year before. We will increase the full-year dividend as we expected only a 2.6% increase compared to FY 17. Our opinion remains positive on the insurer.

Strong H1'23 results; forecasts upgraded

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Morning Note – 6 September 2023