Accsys Technologies - Warning of lower demand

In its trading update for the first four months of FY24, Accsys warned of weaker building materials and construction markets, caused by the higher interest rates and high inflation environment. Distributors are facing significantly lower volumes and high levels of destocking, which is now also felt by Accsys. Assuming market uncertainty continues, Accsys expects FY24 revenue to be below consensus and EBITDA to be significantly below consensus. We contacted the company and according to management

Accsys Technologies - FY23 results better than expected

Accsys’s FY23 results were slightly better than expected, with mainly higher pricing making the difference. Revenue growth of 34% y-o-y was driven by volume growth of 6% and higher average sales prices. EBITDA was +120% y-o-y and clearly benefited from higher prices, more than offsetting the input pressure. There was no further news on the construction of the Accoya plant in the United States (on track and planned to be operational mid-2024) or the Tricoya plant in Hull (construction is still on

Accsys Technologies - Stronger than expected volume growth in Q4

Accsys showed stronger than expected volume growth of 6% in FY23, beating our 1% estimate. Reactors 1–3 in Arnhem are in full production and the fourth is ramping up faster than we expected. There was no news on the Tricoya project in Hull, but construction of the Accoya plant in the US is delayed by four to five months and faces cost inflation. The company’s EBITDA guidance is now ‘moderately ahead’ of doubling to €20.8m previously. Our DCF value still points at €1.15 per share, including >€0.2

Accsys Technologies - Stronger-than-expected revenue growth in Q3

Accsys showed strong revenue growth of 32% in 9M23, driven by higher sales prices (to mitigate input pressure) and a recovery in volumes in Q323 compared to H123. The company remains positive about its outlook for the remainder of the financial year, with continued good demand for both of its products. Accsys expects volumes to be c 50% higher in H223 versus H123 (or 36,000m³, with 17,000m³ in Q4) and a near doubling of underlying EBITDA for the full year (FY22 EBITDA was €10.4m). We have raised

Accsys Technologies - Stronger than expected H123 results

Accsys reported stronger than expected H123 results, with significantly increased sales prices offsetting the higher raw material costs. The fourth reactor in Arnhem is ramping up quickly and Accsys expects H2 volumes to be c 50% higher than in H1. The construction of the Accoya plant in the United States is on schedule, but the Tricoya plant in Hull will take at least six months for Accsys to consider all options and validate the exact costs and funding needed for completion. We have raised our

Accsys Technologies - Accsys now owns 100% of Tricoya but Hull on hold

Accsys has provided an update on the construction of the Tricoya plant in Hull, UK. After the restructuring of the consortium, Accsys now owns 100% of Tricoya, which we think is positive. However, project costs are anticipated to be up to €35m higher than previously expected and all activities at the site have been put on hold for at least six months to mitigate the negative impact on profitability of high acetyls input prices. Accsys will assess the exact costs before it commits capital to comp

Hybridan Small Cap Feast 02/11/22

Dish of the day Joiners: Cooks Coffee Company Limited (NZX:CCC) has joined the Access Segment of has dual listed joining the Access Segment of the AQSE Growth Market under the ticker COOK. Cooks Coffee has a total of 111 outlets in the UK, Ireland and across its international markets. It is the 4th largest coffee chain in the UK (behind Starbucks, Costa and Caffè Nero). The company currently owns the Esquires Coffee and Triple Two Coffee Brands. Esquires was founded nearly 30 years ago and Cooks

Accsys Technologies - Arnhem expansion completed but Hull delayed

Accsys’s trading update included positive news on the commercial start of the fourth reactor in Arnhem and good progress with construction of the Accoya plant in America for production in Q224. However, this was overshadowed by a larger than expected volume decline in the first five months of FY23 (due to previously reported shutdowns) and more delays and cost overruns in the construction of the Tricoya plant in Hull. We have lowered our estimates and increased the company’s risk profile, result

Accsys Technologies - Updating estimates for FY22 results

With its FY22 results at the end of June, Accsys provided guidance for FY23 to almost double EBITDA, mainly driven by new capacity. To fulfil the strong market demand for its high-performance wood products, Accsys aims to expand its capacity from 60,000m3 to 200,000m3 by 2025. However, the current two capacity expansions of 60,000m3 in total faced difficulties during commissioning, resulting in delays of a few months. We have lowered our estimates, incorporated prudent cost buffers for future pr

Accsys Technologies - Additional capacity comes at additional costs

To fulfil the ongoing strong market demand for its high-performance wood products, Accsys aims to expand its total processing capacity from 60,000m3 currently to 200,000m3 by 2025, with 60,000m3 coming on stream in the next three months. Construction delays in Arnhem and working capital needs were the main reasons for the €19m capital rise on 25 May 2022. We have updated our model and raised our revenue estimates, mainly to include the effect of higher pricing, but have lowered our profitability

Accsys Technologies - FY22 guidance reaffirmed, €19m net capital raise

Accsys continues to see strong demand for its high-performance wood products. With demand outstripping capacity, its stated strategy is to expand its total processing capacity from 60,000m3 currently to 200,000m3 by 2025. The group has reaffirmed guidance for FY22, consensus EBITDA is currently €10.4m and adjusted PBT is €1.2m. Driving this performance is price. With volumes flat due to capacity constraints and plant downtimes, which was covered in our March 2022 site visit note, Accoya revenues

Hybridan Small Cap Feast 25/05/22

Joiners: No Joiners Today. Leavers: Clipper Logistics has left the Main Market following a Cash takeover. What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen? According to news reports, The Very Group, is looking to float after calling off their plan for a £4bn IPO last year due to a volatile market. The ecommerce group is owned by the Barclays family. According to the Sunday Times, the retailer has offered incentives to senior leaders at the firm for pulling off a flotation, which the Barclays family now hope to

Hybridan Small Cap Feast 04/03/2022

Joiners: More Acquisitions (TMOR.L) has joined the Main Market (standard) raising £1.2m. The Company was formed to undertake one or more acquisitions of a majority interest in a company or business. Any such acquisition undertaken by the Company will be treated as a reverse takeover for the purposes of Chapter 5 of the Listing Rules. The directors intend to search initially for acquisition opportunities in the energy transition sector. Energy transition refers to the global energy sector's shift

Accsys Technologies - Capacity expansion on track

Accsys has a stated strategy to expand its total processing capacity from 60,000m3 currently to 200,000m3 by 2025. Reported progress at Arnhem – which we visited recently – and Hull with a new US facility also given the green light, represent significant waypoints on this plan which is very much on track. Given strong market demand, we see no reason to change our primary assumptions for FY22 or subsequent years at this stage.

Accsys Technologies - Growing and investing

Ongoing strong demand remains encouraging for Accsys and investment to support future growth is also an indicator of confidence in the outlook, in our view. The broader strategic plan – including well-flagged and material capacity expansion – is intact and our earnings expectations are materially as before. Accsys is at a key business development stage and poised to enter a significant earnings growth phase.

Supreme (SUP LN) - Initiation of coverage

FY24 Interim results: A record H1 performance delivered revenue growth of 62.5% to £105.1m (H1 FY23: £64.6m), with growth across all divisions: Batteries +1.4%, Lighting +21.8%, Sports Nutrition & Wellness +17.5%, Vaping +32.5% (ex- ElfBar) and Branded Distribution +798.9%, which includes revenue of £26.4m from the ElfBar distribution opportunity, commenced in June. Adj. EBITDA of £15.2m is +88.0% (H1 FY23: £8.1m) benefitting from higher sales, and operational efficiencies. Adj. PBT of £12.6m is

Brickability Group - A diversified and resilient model

Today’s interims are in line with the recent trading update (11th October) and as such we make no changes to forecasts. Revenue of £324.8m represents a LFL decline of 14%, with EBITDA of £25.6m (H123: £25.5m). This is a strong performance, against what is a challenging market backdrop and underlines the benefits of its diversified operating model and focused strategy. We therefore continue to be surprised at the weakness of the share price, especially in the context of a broader peer group. Putt

Epwin (EPWN LN) - Confirmation of FY23 estimates and buyback announced

Epwin has released a brief trading update confirming that it is on track to meet FY23 estimates. It has also announced its intention to start a buyback, indicating the Board’s confidence in the business going into FY24, despite the volatile operating environment. Zeus leave profit estimates unchanged across the forecast period. This is a continuation of the performance over the last few years, the business has met or beaten consensus numbers since FY20, has not raised equity and managed its bala

Supreme Plc+ (SUP, House Stock at 110p) - Exceptional H1 - 'significantly' raised FY24F guidance

Morning Note – 28 November 2023

Strong H1 results raise full year outlook

The H1 outcome was as indicated in the recent (18 October) Trading Update. Group guidance for the full year is now raised: from revenue of £195m - 205m to £210m - £220m (ED estimate was £204.2m); (adj.) EBITDA from £28m - £30m to £32m - £35m (ED estimate was £29.0m). From incremental EBITDA of c.£4.5m, c.£1.5m arises from core operations and c.£3.5m from the Elf distribution agreement, which supplies retailers including Tesco, Morrisons, One Stop and WHSmith. A series of initiatives – branding

Epwin Group+ (EPWN, House Stock at 67p) - Trading update and share buyback

Making positive progress on all fronts

UK-Listed Energy Sector: Review of the UK oil and gas landscape – why the country needs it, current policy and tax

The front of this note takes a look at the UK oil and gas sector, why domestic production is advantageous, what the main political parties think, and what could happen going forward. The latter part contains a review of the companies in our coverage – some that are UK centric, which give exposure to the note’s wider theme, and others that are focused elsewhere.

James Cropper + (CRPR, House Stock at 725p) - Directorate changes

Plant Health Care - Outperforming the unprecedented destocking

Plant Health Care has announced a trading update, noting that market conditions in the wider agriculture market have deteriorated but that it continues to outperform the wider market with growth in all regions except the US. In the US, aggressive inventory destocking means orders that were expected in 4Q FY23 are now projected in early FY24. Plant Heath Care therefore now anticipates revenue for FY23 to show flat to modest growth over FY22 (which compares to the crop protection sector where reve

Quadrise+ (QED, House Stock at 1p) - AGM update

SP Angel Morning View: Iron ore rises to $135/t as steel inventories fall

LIBERUM: Severfield: Strong growth prospects

LIBERUM: Yü Group: Eight reasons why Yü is winning