Shares trading >20% below adj. NAV; positive category data

Chapel Down share price in recent weeks has retreated to a 22% discount to our adj. NAV of 38p. This is overdone and offers an attractive entry point on deep value and structural growth considerations. Recent Nielsen off-trade data for English sparkling wine remains highly positive, with April numbers in particular stellar (boosted by the King’s coronation). The growing season is anticipated to have got off to a good start as has the brand relaunch over Q2. While we make no forecast changes, our

Sparkling growth

Chapel Down is a market leader, which is asset backed and offers multiple years of high growth. This is evidenced by FY22 finals with adj. PBT +22% to £1.7m. A generational shift to the growing popularity of English sparkling wine and premiumisation trends make for an attractive investment case. We forecast PBT to more than double by FY26 from the current asset base. Thereafter, our illustrative analysis shows deployment of new capital towards attaining 5% of the addressable market by FY32 (vs 2

Sparkling YE update with strong momentum entering 2023

Today’s YE update is excellent, with stellar growth of 53% in the higher margin sparkling wine category the stand out feature. Good progress is evident across all trade channels, market share is higher and momentum going into 2023 is strong. In short, new management is building a track record of delivery against the sparkling wine / premiumisation led strategy. English sparkling wine is in structural growth, benefiting from an improved maritime climate, international recognition and investment.

Exceptional 2022 harvest yield & quality

A very positive update today from Chapel Down on the all-important yearly harvest. The yield is a bumper 2k tonnes, a near historical high and significantly, of very high quality grapes. This is consistent with the Group’s premium strategic positioning and helps underpin outer year revenue expectations. The exceptional harvest news builds on the solid interims recently and supportive of the ambition to double the size of the business by 2026 (>£28m sales and >£5m EBITDA). English sparkling wine

Morning Note – 25 April 2022

Small Cap Feast

Samarkand Group Limited, the cross-border eCommerce technology and retail group opening up the world's largest market for brands and retailers, intends to IPO on the Apex Segment Aquis Stock Exchange Growth Market. Admission is targeted for March 2021. Cellular Goods a UK-based provider of premium consumer products based on biosynthetic cannabinoids announced its intention to join the main market (standard) this spring. Target valuation £20m raising c. £8m “to finalise the development and launch

Small Cap Breakfast

Green Man Gaming—pure play e-commerce and technology company in the digital video games industry. revenue CAGR growth of 26.7% in the last three years to £47.5m. Due late Sep. EBITDA Profitable. Offer TBA Crossword Cybersecurity PLC* (NEX:CCS)—the technology commercialisation company focusing exclusively on the cyber security sector is exploring its options in relation to a potential move to the AIM market of the London Stock Exchange which, if it were to proceed, would likely take place over

Small Cap Breakfast

Ten Lifestyle Hldgs. Technology-enabled lifestyle and travel platform providing trusted concierge services to the world's wealthy. Net revenue increased from £20 million in the year ended 31 August 2015 to £33 million in the year ended 31 August 2017, a compound annual growth rate of 29%. Offer and date TBA. AfriTin Mining—Demerger from Bushveld Minerals (BMN.L). Offer TBA. Due 6 Nov. The Uis Tin project (Namibia) is considered the flagship tin asset within the portfolio, as this was once the l

Anpario+ (ANP) - House Stock (from Buy), 208p - Appointment as NOMAD & Broker leads to withdrawal of recommendation.

GenAI: How to Use It

You''ve been here before, right? Blockchain, the Metaverse - and now GenAI. Could this time really be different and the hype justified? The answer to this question is rooted in how GenAI can be used in the real world. In this report we thus challenge our sector teams to identify GenAI use-cases within their industries - and those companies likely to pioneer them. The result is perhaps the broadest consideration yet of how GenAI can diffuse through the economy. Efficiency is the common theme, pr

46 stocks, 272 charts, 690 questions

Conference compendium With the summer conference season approaching, we have collated a convenient compendium of questions and performance/valuation/data screens for all the stocks within our food, household and personal care, beverages and consumer ingredients coverage universe. Stock information Within you will find 15 updated questions for management, latest company guidance, the P/E and EV/EBIT history relative to the wider sector, the P/E history relative to the relevant sub-sector, the YTD

Good start to FY23; FD departure

A solid Q1’23 update from Nichols today with revenue up 4.2% vs a stiff 29% comp. International was the standout feature, led by good momentum being sustained in Africa reinforcing Nichols’ geographic diversity. Inflation continues to be effectively managed. The other main news is the resignation of the CFO. In our view, post the successful OoH strategic review, he leaves Nichols on a much stronger strategic and financial footing. A search for a successor has commenced. With full year PBT expect

India''s decade: key learnings from our field trip

Key learnings from our India field trip We spent much of last week in India meeting both corporates (Beiersdorf, Diageo, Godrej Consumer, Heineken, Jyothy Labs, Marico, Reliance Retail, Titan and Unilever) and important domestic equity investors. This report summarises the key learnings from our trip. Fast pace of development We were struck by the fast pace of development since we were last in India (2018): new roads, metro lines and a high-end shopping mall in Mumbai being obvious examples. Gr

2022 IWSR data and 15 observations for investors

2022 IWSR data and 15 observations for investors IWSR (International Wine and Spirits Research), which describes itself as the global benchmark for beverage alcohol data, released its 2022 estimates last week (25th May). Having combed through the data, we draw-out 15 observations that we believe are likely to be of most interest to investors. Observation 1: Both Western Style Spirits and Beer gained share of throat in 2022 Combining the new IWSR data with preliminary Beer estimates per GlobalDat

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 05 May 23

5th May 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment objective

Growth Companies - Share & share alike Sell in May?

Greencore Group (GNC) - House Stock at 76p - H1 FY23A - Forecasts retained

A Good Crisis Gone to Waste

Winston Churchill famously said one should ''never let a good crisis go to waste''. While packaged food companies embraced this mindset with admirable efforts throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, we believe the data suggests that the pandemic has not resulted in lasting consumption benefits for the group, broadly speaking. With a future for the industry in which idiosyncratic factors could well again shine through in top-line results, we come away with increased conviction in General Mills (+). A g

LIBERUM: Genus* - Sticky Chinese Pork

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 12 Jan 23

12 January 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment object

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 27 Apr 23

27th April 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment object

Vimto brand strength reinforced in 2022

We are impressed with todays YE update, further reinforcing the resilience of the Vimto brand against a difficult consumer and cost backdrop. Revenue grew 14%, with International a key stand out and PBT in line with market expectations (+16% y/y). The OoH strategic review is near complete and will be unveiled at the March finals. We anticipate a robust plan to lift profitability from FY24. There is also good news around succession planning with a new Chair appointed. Outlook commentary for FY23

SHORE CAPITAL - Share & share alike