Cenkos: Time Finance plc -- A New Quarter, a New Upgrade

Time Finance has released a positive Q3/23A update for the period ending 28 February 2023. It follows a strong first half and shows continued momentum in the business. We are upgrading our FY23E revenue forecasts from £25.7m to £26m and FY23E PBT from £3.2m to £3.6m. Time's valuation looks deeply discounted on an FY24E P/E ratio of 5.8x and P/TNAV of 0.6x. We expect a material re-rating as management continue to deliver profitable growth and we believe upside risks to forecasts remain dominant.

Cenkos: Time Finance plc -- Upgrade to Forecasts

Time Finance has released its interim results for the period ending 30 November 2022, in-line with its December trading update. As previously highlighted, the half was incredibly strong for the group and has given them a great platform for growth in the coming quarters. We are upgrading our FY23E revenue forecast by 3% from £25m to £25.7m and FY23E PBT by 16% from £2.8m to £3.2m. The percentage increases show the desirable operational gearing in the business with c60% gross margins and no additi

Cenkos: Time Finance plc -- Core Book Strategy Building Well

Time Finance has released a trading update for the half-year ending 30 November 2022, showing another robust set of results. Following the restructuring during FY22A, FY23E is shaping up to be a strong year for the business. The strategy of focusing on its core book, and in particular the secured lending divisions, is reaping dividends in terms of both book size and quality of the book. Time remains on track to hit our full-year estimates and we leave forecasts unchanged. Time's valuation looks

Hybridan Small Cap Feast 19/10/22

Dish of the day Joiners: No joiners today. Leavers: No leavers today. What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen?** Ithaca Energy, a UK independent exploration and production company focused on the UK North Sea, intends to join the Premium Segment of the Main Market. Ithaca Energy is one of the largest independent oil and gas companies in the UKCS, ranking 2nd by resources and 3rd by production. During the six months ended 30 June 2022, Ithaca Energy's average daily production (oil and gas) on a net work

Cenkos: Time Finance plc -- Time for growth

Time Finance released their FY22 annual results ending 31 May 2022 in-line with the trading update in July. It has also released a Q1/23A update which provides colour on the success of its new strategy focused on the core business. We leave forecasts unchanged and believe the company remains on track to hit our FY23E forecasts. Time looks significantly undervalued given it trades on a P/TNAV of 0.5x, an FY24E PE of 4.1x and over 65% growth forecasted in Adj PBT over the next two years.

Cenkos: Time Finance plc - Streamlining for success

Time Finance have released a trading update following their 31 May 2022 year-end (FY22E), with full-year results scheduled to be published in September. The update reveals a streamlining of their operations through a strategy of divestment from their non-core brokerage divisions and expansion of their profitable core own-book lending business. We have adjusted forecasts to reflect the new strategy and released forecasts for FY24E to show a more normalised year. Time looks significantly undervalu

Time Finance: The rewards of investment

Revenue of £118.2m was 8% above our forecast and underpinned 53% pre-tax profit growth to £23.7m. Management’s decision to invest in challenging markets is reaping rewards. The Credit Hire and Legal Services divisions produced strong results and the Housing Disrepair Team has had a strong start.

Early strategic progress not reflected in valuation

H1 ‘22 results (to 30 Nov ‘21) show steady progress on key metrics, with signs that Time’s refined strategy under the leadership of CEO Ed Rimmer (appointed 1 Jun ‘21) is resulting in a return to growth, following the Covid-induced pullbacks in lending markets in 2020 and 2021. £58.1m of new loans were originated in H1 ‘22, up 25% over H2 ‘21, and 3% y-o-y. The gross loan book increased 4% from £115.7m on 31 May ‘21 to £120.5m. Revenue was flat y-o-y (£11.8m v £11.9m in H1 ‘21), with PBT slightl

Cenkos: Time Finance plc -- Post-pandemic recovery firmly afoot

In today's interim results, Time Finance has continued to generate growth despite the persisting challenges of the pandemic. FY22E is a year of investment and transition to allow the company to ratchet up growth in FY23E to move towards their goal of doubling the gross loan book over 5 years. To achieve this, investment has been made across the sales resource of Asset, Invoice Finance and Commercial Loans divisions. The size of their own lending book has increased again and the quality has impro

Solid update amidst pandemic uncertainty

n a half-year trading update to 30 Nov 21 (H1 22), Time Finance has reported positive loan origination momentum, leading to its gross lending book increasing from £116m on 31 May 21 to approximately £121m, and its Net Tangible Assets increasing from £28.4m to over £29m. Whilst we also caution that uncertainty certainly exists around the near-term recovery of Time’s markets, our previous forecasts look roughly in line with current trading momentum and we have not revised these. We will review

After solid results our Fair Value is at twice current level

FY21 results (to 31 May) are in line with expectations. While business volumes and revenue were hit by the pandemic slowdown, Time stayed profitable (unlike many other lenders) with cost cutting measures actually boosting margins, and the balance sheet remaining strong. New CEO Ed Rimmer has already started to lay the foundations for a return to growth, and is looking to double the size of the lending book over four years through organic growth.

Cenkos: Time Finance plc -- Getting back to growing the book

Today's results echo the messaging of June's detailed trading update, confirming a resilient FY21A result over a COVID-19 affected year. Whilst current market conditions remain challenging (given the large degree of government support provided to SMEs over the pandemic), we expect net origination growth to return over FY22E, as the economy rebounds, driving future revenues. While profit growth will be tempered by investment in FY22E, we expect a strong earnings delivery of +63% in FY23E, as retu

Cenkos: Time Finance plc -- Inflection point of financial recovery

Today's trading update confirms a resilient profit delivery consistent with FY20A, despite challenging conditions over FY21E, which saw a notable reduction in originations and Time's lending book. With the UK economy reopening at the year-end, with strong GDP growth expected over 2021, we see a healthy rebound in SME demand for Time's credit products as likely. This should provide an inflection point for own-book originations, the lending book's size and profits, despite some reinvestment over F

Momentum clearly building

In our Jan 21 initiation note ‘Time to be rerated’ we suggested that Time’s results for H1 to 30 Nov 20 showed that a recovery from a Covid-induced slump in good quality lending demand and spike in bad debt provisions was well underway. In a corporate update released today Time has confirmed ongoing momentum of that recovery. Forbearance levels have reduced from the Jun 20 pandemic peak of £25m to under £2.5m on 31 Mar 21, with total arrears now below the 28 Feb 20 pre-Covid level. This has cont

Small Cap Feast

Dr.Martens DOCS.L — Dr. Martens is an iconic global brand and one of the most recognised footwear brands in the world, selling in excess of 11 million pairs of footwear annually in more than 60 countries with revenues of £672m in the year ended 31 March 2020. Offer Price set at 370 pence per Share . Dr. Martens' total market capitalisation at the commencement of conditional dealings on the main market of London Stock Exchange today will be approximately £3.7 billion based on the Offer Price. Pa

Uncertain outlook comes as no surprise

We take a positive view of Legal & General’s FY 22 results. Despite the tough environment, the Group managed to outperform expectations – something which was hardly a given for such a large asset manager. With L&G being widely exposed to the UK economy, it might be a call one does not want to make but the firm’s business remains one of spreads – as long as a default does not occur. We remain positive but concede that L&G embeds more risk than we had assumed.

Very strong CY22 - CY23 upgraded 10%

LIBERUM: Alpha Group International* - Highly attractive global growth opportunity

Ambitious winds of change

M&G’s FY 22 results were strong. It was also the opportunity for new CEO Andrea Rossi to depict clearly his strategy for the upcoming months. While the impetus is clear and the objectives are ambitious, we rather believe in a structural improvement of the business (driven by the higher rates environment) than a commercial one.

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 06 Mar 23

6 March 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment objective

Belvoir Group - Debt free, entrepreneurial and diverse

2022 followed on from the strongest year for property in recent history, but Belvoir has, nevertheless, reported a robust set of full-year results further evidencing the power of its franchised model and strategy. FY 2022 revenue was up +14% (+2% like-for-like), gross profit up +6% and adj. PBT down -1% as the resilient Lettings income and expanding Financial Services business continued to grow (both +4% LFL), while housing Sales fell (-15% LFL) as market conditions weakened and administrative c

LIBERUM: Real Estate Investors* - Profitable sales drive valuation increase and NTA outperformance

Morning Note – 27 March 2023

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 14 Mar 23

14 March 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment objectiv

Critical Metals Plc - Initiating Coverage - 20th March 2023

Critical Metals is a British company that has acquired a 70% interest in a producing Molulu copper mine in the Katanga region of the DRC. The focus of the company is in the natural resources sector in Africa focused on the strategic or critical metals as defined by the United States Government Survey list in Open-File Report 2018-1021 and the Critical Raw Minerals as defined by the European Commission. The main catalysts for 2023 will be the announcement of the first sales of copper ore. This i

LIBERUM: Pollen Street * - Clear fundraising momentum

NAHL Group - Finals

NAHL generated growth in both its Personal Injury (PI) and Critical Care divisions, the former despite a continuation of subdued market conditions – hence market share gains. Results were in line with our forecasts but with a significant reduction in net debt which is especially welcome in the current high interest rate environment. Group strategy remains intact and in PI that means building the embedded value of future cash flows in NAL while flexing enquiry placements to maximise cash generati

Positive update - EPS upgraded by 5% p.a.

H&T (initiation of coverage): Pawnbroking royalty, with strong, profitable growth

Founded in 1897, H&T is the UK’s leading pawnbroker, with 269 stores, and it has gained a strong pawnbroking market share in recent years. While it is growing ancillary gold buying and forex products, its core is pawnbroking and related retail services. As other small-sum, short-term lenders have withdrawn, H&T’s well-capitalised, low-risk proposition has unique growth opportunities, with the pledge book up over 50% in 2022. The lessening of legitimate competition at a time of heightened demand

Cenkos: Personal Group Holdings Plc -- Momentum building

Personal Group's FY22 results show good underlying growth in both API and ARR, with significant HoH EBITDA expansion also delivered in H2. The growth in its insurance book and increased levels of ARR provides high levels of visibility into 2023. Retention rates are high, the group has added 101 new clients and its expansion into the SME market is growing rapidly. Today's results demonstrate the clear benefits of the diversification of the model since 2019 and the ongoing relevance of its offerin