Auctus on Friday - 03/02/2023

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Arrow Exploration (AXL LN)C: Target price of £0.45 per share: On track for a very busy 2023 – Arrow is about to embark on a 10 well drilling programme that could add between 2,800 and 4,800 boe/d net production (before decline and in a success case) to the existing constrained production base of ~1,800 boe/d. Over January, production was ~1,800 boe/d with short term outages due to weather at Ombu and Pepper. This compares with produc

An encouraging start to the year

COPL yesterday announced initial results of its first completion of a Frontier 1 well at Cole Creek. While we acknowledge that it would likely take a few more weeks of patience before one can make a more definitive judgement on the production potential of this formation, in our view the initial results are encouraging. At the very minimum, reported flow of oil from the Frontier 1 formation is already ahead of what the last CPR was classifying only as “prospective” resources. Furthermore, achievi

Hybridan Small Cap Feast 21/12/22

Dish of the day Joiners: Medcaw Investments Plc, epic MCI, has joined the Main Market on the Standard List. The Company was formed to undertake one or more acquisitions in the life sciences sector, particularly those that are focused on developing medical and/or wellness technologies and/or therapies. Leavers: ContourGlobal Plc, epic GLO, has left the Premium Segment of the Main Market. What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen?** Quetzal Capital, to be renamed Tap Global Group, intends to join the AQSE

Auctus on Friday - 18/11/2022

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Panoro Energy (PEN NO)C; Target price of NOK50 per share: Dry hole in South Africa – The Gazania- 1 well did not encounter hydrocarbons. Panoro, Africa Energy (AFE CN/AEC SS) and Eco Atlantic (ECO LN/EOG CN) hold respectively 12.5%, 27.5% and 50% WI in the well. PetroTal (PTAL LN/TAL CN)C; Target price of £1.30 per share: Production returning to normal – 3Q22 production, cash and receivables/payables as at the end of September had bee

Takeaways and challenges from the third quarter

In addition to the operational updates provided in last few weeks, yesterday COPL also provided its 3Q22 financial results. While the production challenges were already highlighted in the previous updates, we now also have a better picture of their financial impact, and importantly, what that means for going forward. On the challenging side, the company experienced its lowest monthly production level in July and higher cash costs in the quarter. On the flip side, since July, the production has r

COPL: Potential JV Partner Would Provide External Validation and Possible Funding Option

COPL has released an operations and corporate objectives update. We believe the most important news is that COPL has been approached by a large oil company with operations in Wyoming to explore a Joint Venture to appraise and develop the Company’s Deep Oil Discovery. Technical due diligence is in process, and COPL will provide an update on its progression when appropriate. Given that the market appears, in our view, to be ascribing little value to the Deep Discovery, we see this as a sign of ext

Auctus on Friday - 6/09/2022

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Longboat Energy (LBE LN)C; Target price of £1.25 per share: Copernicus is dry - The Copernicus exploration well on licence PL1017 was dry. The well failed to encounter any effective reservoir. This was a high risk well. Drilling was much quicker than anticipated. As a result, the cost of the well was materially under budget, suggesting that the balance sheet of the company could be stronger than our current assumption. We reduce our ta

Step by Step

Following the completion of the Cuda transaction, COPL this week provided a summary of its updated Competent Person Report (CPR). We believe this was a necessary step before the company starts exploring options for replacing its current loan facility with a reserves-based lending (RBL) facility. The CPR assigned c.34mmbbls of 2P reserves to COPL, valued at NPV10 of $492mm (pre-tax), which we find encouraging and in line with our thesis. Namely, the updated CPR numbers do not imply a material dow

Auctus on Friday - 19/08/2022

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ SDX Energy (SDX LN)C; Target of £0.22 per share: 2Q22 in line. Growing production at West Gharib – 2Q22 production and net cash at the end of June had already been reported. Development drilling at West Gharib and South Disouq has delivered good results with six out of nine wells, four at West Gharib and two at South Disouq, drilled during 2022 now in production. At West Gharib, each well encountered 56-137 ft of net pay with good rese

SP Angel Morning Energiser: 13/08/22

Soaring temperatures elevate gas prices

What would it take?

This morning COPL provided an operational update and its 2Q22 results. In the published results, we try to identify the areas that have likely caused the current downbeat sentiment in the market and, more importantly, what would it take for management to turn it around. On the negative side, production in 2Q22 declined more than our expectation (especially in June) and on a pro-forma basis the company still spent more than it earned last quarter. However, we do believe that the results also prov

COPL: Q2’22 results and operations update

COPL reported revenue (pre-hedging) of US$7mm, flat q/q as a higher realised sales price of US$105/bbl (+15% q/q) was offset by lower production (-14% q/q). On top of this COPL also held Cuda's share of production which was US$2.7mm post-royalties. Opex was flat in absolute terms but up on a unit basis to US$15/bbl. We estimate EBITDA (pre-hedging) of US$2.5mm down from US$2.8mm in Q1'22 on the back of higher G&A. There was a US$2.6mm realised hedging loss and a further US$2.4mm unrealised loss.

COPL: CPR confirms Wyoming Oil Discovery

COPL has received a Resource Report (CPR) prepared by independent consultancy Ryder Scott confirming its deep oil discovery on its lands in Converse and Natrona counties, Wyoming. The Report was commissioned by COPL to supplement its internal assessment of crude oil resources in its discovery disclosed to the market in January 2022. The CPR supports the Company’s conclusion that the Frontier 2 and Dakota discoveries are large stratigraphic oil accumulations encompassing the reserves at the Compa

The size of the prize, as defined by a CPR

This morning COPL provided a summary of a Competent Person Report (CPR) that reflects an independent view on the currently available data on the company’s Deep Unit discovery. In our view, the CPR is very encouraging in some areas while stops short of management expectations in others (likely due to lack of data). But overall, we see this report as third-party confirmation of a discovery and more importantly what ‘the prize’ could be if the next well is successful. Moreover, we believe the CPR f

SP Angel Morning Energiser: 05/08/22

Crude prices retreat on recession fears

LIBERUM: Sylvania Platinum* - 3p interim dividend & new policy

Updated Alkaid #2 test results

SHORE CAPITAL - Savannah Energy+ (SAVE, Under Review, Suspended) - Chad upstream asset update

Loony for Bougouni

Jubilee Metals - H1 FY2023 results

Jubilee today provides its unaudited financial results for the half-year period ending December 2022. Group Revenue of £63.1m (H1 FY2022: £63m) with £58m from its chrome/PGM operations in South Africa and £5m from copper in Zambia. Headline EBITDA of £10.3m (£13.7m) with a closing cash position of £11.7m (£21.5m) after continuing its capital investment program of £24.1m (£28.4m). Production of PGM was down in the period at 18.2koz (20.3koz), but all was from its own facility at Inyoni so cap

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 21 Feb 23

21 February 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment objec

Union Jack Oil (UJO LN) - Wressle update

Ongoing strong production from Wressle. Union Jack has released an update on revenues from its Wressle field (Union Jack 40%). Wressle has now achieved over US$14m of cumulative net revenues from the field since mid-August 2021, from US$13m as of early February 2023. The field continues to produce under natural flow and with zero water cut (most recently reported at a gross rate of 825-850bbl/d). These Wressle revenues continue to help underpin company financial performance, while also providing

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 06 Mar 23

6 March 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment objective

IOG (IOG LN) - Full year 2022 results

Numbers partly already released in January. IOG has released its full year 2022 results. In January the company announced gross average production from first gas in March to the end of 2022 of 27.4mmcf/d, end 2022 gross cash of £32.4m (including £5.7m restricted), 2022 revenue before sales deductions of £79.6m, cash OPEX of 13.9p/therm, and cash CAPEX of £61.2m.

FY22 - Focus on the next 6 months' operations

Savannah Energy - Chad upstream business nationalised

The Republic of Chad has nationalised the upstream assets Savannah recently acquired from ExxonMobil. While disappointing, Savannah remains highly free cash flow generative, an attribute the approaching completion of Petronas’s South Sudan oil business is set to boost further.

i3 Energy Update to Fair Value Estimate

We are updating our fair value estimate to reflect more conservative oil and gas price assumptions. We have lowered our 2023 WTI oil price estimate to $74.05/b from $83.10/b, to align our estimates with market dynamics. We have lowered our US benchmark (Henry Hub) natural gas price for 2023 to $3.02/mmbtu from $3.36/mmbtu, which reflects the most recent price forecast made by US EIA Short Term Energy Outlook. As a result, we are lowering our fair value estimate for i3 Energy to 26.2p from 31.6p

SHORE CAPITAL - TOUCHSTONE EXPLORATION+ (TXP, 61p, House Stock) - FY22A results exceed our forecasts; Cascadura remains on track versus prior guidance

PetroTal Corp (AIM: PTAL): Production back at 20 mbbl/d. Regular payments from Petroperu

• Production was constrained in January and February, with average production of ~7,600 bbl/d and 8,000 bbl/d respectively, due to restricted barging capacity over these two months. • The barging fleet schedules have now been re-established with an increased capacity of 1.5 mmbbl (1.2 mmbbl in 2022) and PetroTal’s production has been averaging 20 mbbl/d since the last week of February. • Given the constrained production rates over January and February, the company now expects 1Q23 production t

Kenmare Resources: FY22 another year of financial records culminating in a USc54.3/sh dividend

Kenmare (“KMR”) released record FY22 financial results this morning, with realised prices exceeding expectations and delivering EBITDA of US$298m, 6% above H&Pe and up 39% YoY. This generated the largest full year dividend to date at 54.3 cps, implying a trailing yield of 10.2%. As reported on 2nd March, an early set back caused by an unprecedent lightning strike has dented output in Q1’23, although KMR still believes the bottom end of its FY23 range is achievable. With the Company seeing some s