War weighs on profitability but targets remain unchanged

SAP’s Q1 results were a mixed bag. While revenues were above consensus, profitability came in lower due to the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war. Nevertheless, the group reported better-than-expected momentum for its Cloud business. This was visible in the marked growth across all regions. The growth in S/4 HANA was also solid. Backed by these positives, the group is confident of making up for the negative impact from the war and confirmed its outlook.

Decent progress towards cloud transition

Throughout 2021, SAP continued to see an increasing shift towards cloud transition. The group’s ‘RISE with SAP’ programme continued to attract customers and S/4HANA showcased robust growth. These trends are expected to persist in 2022. Licensing revenues declined with a similar trend expected going forward. Operating profitability was lower than expected but the bottom line benefited from a strong contribution by Sapphire Ventures. The profitability target for 2022 is lower than expectations but

Q3 brings another increase in outlook

SAP, in Q3, built up on the traction seen in cloud transition in the previous quarter. SAP posted encouraging numbers as ‘Rise with SAP’ gathered further momentum and attracted new customers as well. S/4HANA also continued to attract customers as demand remained solid. Consequently, licence revenues declined. Similar to the previous quarter, the group once again raised its outlook up a notch. However, we see no monumental change to our estimates.

Acceleration of cloud transition

In Q2, SAP built on the good traction seen in its cloud transition through its Rise with SAP programme. This was visible in its current cloud backlog growth and cloud revenues. Licence revenues declined as expected. Good momentum was also seen in S/4 HANA and the group saw a general improvement in demand as reopening took place. After this release, the group raised its outlook albeit marginally. We will keep our recommendation unchanged.

Q1 21 is a qualitative positive

SAP’s Q1 numbers were very similar to Q1 FY20’s in terms of revenues but lower in terms of operating profits. A clear positive, though, was the good traction in the group’s cloud business which was evident from the group’s current cloud backlog and cloud revenues. While it is still too early to call on 2025 plan, these developments are a good omen that SAP will be able to handle the transition well and deliver on its medium-term targets.

A satisfactory Q4 result closes out FY20

SAP’s Q4 figures showed a sequential improvement. They also helped it to surpass its revised FY20 guidance for revenue and achieve the high-end of the range in operating margins. FCF generation in particular was a positive and some ways ahead of the guidance. The group also put forward its FY21 outlook and reiterated its FY25 ambitions. The transformation will take time.

Mediocre Q3 is only the beginning of the tough slog ahead

SAP’s Q3 results were average at best and missed our expectations. Consequently, the group not only lowered its FY20 guidance but also pushed its mid-term target out by two years from FY23 to FY25. These developments come as a result of two crucial mistakes: 1/being late to drive the push from licenses to cloud and 2/under-estimating how fast the transformation would occur, mostly aided by COVID. The result, a long road ahead to growth.

FCF target raised and further cash to come with Qualtrics IPO

SAP today posted its final Q2 figures, confirming the preliminary results reported last week. The company raised its operating cash flow and FCF expectations for the year. It also announced the listing of Qualtrics, which it acquired in November 2018, while keeping a majority stake in the company, which looks logical given the synergies between both. All in all, this is positive news.

A co-CEO leaving the ship

There were no major surprises in the figures compared to the pre-release in early April. The main surprise was the announcement regarding the departure of Jennifer Morgan, the co-CEO with Christian Klein, with the latter now taking over as sole CEO.

Poor new Cloud bookings

SAP’s 19Q4 results were mixed, though globally in line with consensus, with sales up +8% and a margin contraction of 590bp on an IFRS basis, while it expanded by 110bp on non-IFRS. It is always strange to observe such a difference trough in accounting methods. The cloud development quarter over quarter was also disappointing with a clear deceleration in new cloud bookings in relative terms. We remain unconvinced by SAP’s current equity story based on shifting from licences to cloud revenues.

CMD feedback

As part of its Capital Markets Day, the SAP’s new team confirmed the mid-term targets (growth and margins) set earlier by the former CEO. While revenues of above €35bn and operating profit of c.€11.9bn by 2023 were both already known, the new target was on FCF, which is expected to grow by 15-25% per year and reach c.€8bn by 2023. The ambitions are there, but the execution will be more complicated in our view. We stick to our Reduce recommendation.

Gaia-X: fiction or reality?

Europe clearly admits the domination of the cloud by the American majors. Independence is becoming increasingly urgent, especially since the Trump administration signed the Cloud Act in 2018, allowing it to ask American companies to deliver their customers’ data, including those stored outside the US. The German project, called Gaia-X, aims to create a European legal framework necessary for the development of a European cloud. Although the European Commission supports the initiative, it remains

Equity story remains unchanged, though Q3 margin improved

Having released its Q3 preliminary results two weeks ago, SAP today provided further details with its final Q3 release. The margin development was good in both cloud and software licences. The new partnership with Microsoft is good news as it will accelerate and simplify the migration to S/4HANA. SAP confirmed its 2019 outlook as well as its medium-term ambitions. SAP’s equity story, however, does not change, and therefore we stick to our Reduce recommendation.

Patience has limits

SAP reported a mixed set of results. Revenues grew, while margins remained flat (non-IFRS) or were down (IFRS). The street is focused on Cloud and margins, which we fully understand, but what about the gap between IFRS and non-IFRS figures? Once again, share-based compensations and restructuring costs have penalised the FCF development. When will SAP think about its shareholders? Actually, we could accept this kind of fee if the Cloud had clearly taken off. But that is not the case….

Good start to the year, brighter outlook

SAP reported a good set of results over the first quarter. Revenues and operating profit grew under non-IFRS standards, while the latter declined in IFRS mainly due to restructuring costs (€886m) and high share-based compensation (€517m). Further details will be disclosed at the second CMD announced for 12 November, with a focus on margins and operating leverage initiatives. We confirm our positive view on the stock, though it is not yet a strong buy.

Cenkos: Healthcare Sector - Ward Round

Weekly round-up of AIM-listed healthcare news. Venture Life Group, GENinCode, Kromek, Alliance Pharma, Polarean Imaging, Benchmark Holdings, Ondine Biomedical, Verici Dx, Faron Pharmaceuticals, Avacta Group, Abingdon Health, Open Orphan, Belluscura, Hutchmed (China), Oxford Biodynamics

LIBERUM: Bango* - Agreement signed with global player

Guidance cut on a continuing higher return rate

Asos has cut its FY22 guidance as shoppers return more clothes amid inflationary pressure. The group also continues to work actively against the ongoing global supply chain challenges. The FY22 top-line is expected to grow between 4%-7% vs .10%-15% previously Adj. PBT will be in a range of £20m-£60m vs. £110m-£140m.

Capital Markets Day feedback

Cambridge Cognition held a very impressive CMD yesterday which showcased the group's Science and Technology capabilities.

Hybridan Small Cap Feast 28/06/2022

Joiners: No Joiners Today. Leavers: Raven Property Group has left the Main Market. What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen? Immediate acquisitions (IME.L) is to re-join AIM via a Reverse Takeover of Fiinu Holdings Limited. Once complete the Company is proposing to change its name to Fiinu Group plc. Fiinu intends to be a provider of a consumer banking product, the Plugin Overdraft ®, which is designed to provide customers with an overdraft facility without having to change their current account or req

Hybridan Small Cap Feast 16/06/2022

*A corporate client of Hybridan LLP Dish of the day Joiners: No Joiners Today. Leavers: No Leavers Today. What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen? LifeSafe Holdings, a fire safety technology business with innovative fire safety products, intends to join AIM. LifeSafe has developed what the Directors believe to be market disrupting, eco-friendly fire safety protection products to both protect (via fire extinguishers) and detect (via carbon monoxide, smoke and heat alarms) fires. At the cent

Hybridan Small Cap Feast 22/06/2022

Dish of the day Joiners: No Joiners Today. Leavers: No Leavers Today. What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen? Visum Technologies seeking admission to The AQSE Growth Market. The Company's business is to own and operate an "on-ride" video and photographic camera system that it sells and/or licenses to customers (being theme parks, ride manufacturers, souvenir imaging providers, and other leisure operators). Due 30 June. LifeSafe Holdings, a fire safety technology business with innovative fire safety p

Contract Cancellation

Actual Experience has been notified by a Channel Partner that one of its customers, a leading energy supplier, will terminate its contract as of 18th August 2022. The contract was valued at £1m over 3 years, with £0.2m recognised in FY Sep21. ACT says that its continuing viability “will depend on securing more sales, the timing of which cannot be forecast with any certainty”. It continues to access the impact on the company and will make a further announcement when appropriate.

Hybridan Small Cap Feast 21/06/2022

Joiners: No Joiners Today. Leavers: No Leavers Today. What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen? Visum Technologies seeking admission to The AQSE Growth Market. The Company's business is to own and operate an "on-ride" video and photographic camera system that it sells and/or licenses to customers (being theme parks, ride manufacturers, souvenir imaging providers, and other leisure operators). Due 30 June. LifeSafe Holdings, a fire safety technology business with innovative fire safety products, intends

SysGroup (SYS LN) - Initiation of coverage

SysGroup is an award-winning provider of managed IT services, cyber security, cloud hosting and IT consultancy. The Group offers investors an attractive business model with high recurring revenue and a diversified customer base. SysGroup is competitively well positioned to benefit from sector trends and is investing in sales capacity to take advantage of cross-selling opportunities and a recovering market. In addition, the company has opportunities to make highly accretive acquisitions and its s

SHORE CAPITAL - OnTheMarket Plc (OTMP) - House Stock at 87p - Time to shine

Upgrading estimates following material contract win

Morning Note – 23 June 2022

Hybridan Small Cap Feast 27/06/22

Joiners: No Joiners Today. Leavers: No Leavers Today. What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen? Immediate acquisitions (IME.L) is to re-join AIM via a Reverse Takeover of Fiinu Holdings Limited. Once complete the Company is proposing to change its name to Fiinu Group plc. Fiinu intends to be a provider of a consumer banking product, the Plugin Overdraft ®, which is designed to provide customers with an overdraft facility without having to change their current account or request an overdraft from their

Contract wins and trading update

Tribal has today announced multiple contract wins (both with new and existing customers) and as well, a positive interim update for FY22, highlighting that - driven by this sales momentum and stronger than expected implementations – revenue now expected to be “marginally ahead”. EBITDA meanwhile has been temporarily held back by a customer specific factor, though this is set to recover in H2 and hence management are guiding to unchanged EBITDA expectations for the full-year. We therefore upgrade