Ebro vs. distributors

A strong performance in Q1 (better-than-expected) is welcomed given the more cautious tone of the company for the following months.

Not so bad !

9m FY21 figures were obviously down vs. FY20 (strong negative comps), but they were still remarkable compared with FY19. We expected very complicated management of inflation for the group, but we see a rather good surprise on that side. On the other hand, we should be more cautious about 2022, when the current hedging will roll off.

Tough comps, but still progressing vs. 2019

Unsurprisingly, we see a decrease in the results compared to 2020, but still good progress compared to 2019, which confirms the good trajectory of the group.

Tough comps but the momentum remains strong

With no surprise, Q1 FY21 top and bottom lines declined due to tough comps. The momentum remains, however, strong looking at CAGR 21/19, but input cost inflation is now the main threat looking forward.

2020: Ebro's year

Unsurprising very strong FY20 results (but still even more than our expectations). We believe Ebro is at a turning point and we continue to be positive on the stock.

Maintained positive momentum

Although the figures showed greater volatility, the rise in demand triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic continues to dominate Ebro’s results. Deleveraging is well on track.

COVID-19 pushed up Q1

After a strong set of FY19 figures, Ebro’s Q1 benefited from COVID-19 due to increasing rice and pasta consumption. Q2 should be even better, while we expect a gradual return to normal starting in Q3. EBITDA is affected by raw material prices increase, but the group is confident that the FY20 bottom line should be better yoy.

Investments pushed up growth...and net debt

A strong set of FY19 figures, especially thanks to strong comparables. We note that organic investments had begun to bear fruit, although the company doesn’t expect to see the relevant impacts until 2021. In the mean time, it is actually debt that is going up.

Strong boost to its results… and its net debt

The group reported a strong set of Q3 FY19 results, beating analysts’ expectations on the bottom line. Ebro’s investments finally pushed up growth… as well as the group’s debt.

Disappointing FY18 set of results

FY18 Key Financials : Group sales grew by 5.6% to €2,464m (on organic basis: +2%) EBITDA fell by 13.4% to €311m, with currency having a negative impact of €4.4m EBITDA margin declined by 2.6 pp to 11.7%. In Q4: 14% EBITDA margin Net profit fell by 36% to €142m, while the FY17 net profit was positively driven by the tax-related measures approved in the USA, France and Italy (one-off extraordinary income of €56.5m). Excluding this external effect, net profit fell by 14% FY18 Net debt/EBITDA

Q3: challenging cost structure

Q3 update: Sales are up 11%, however, the EBITDA margin contracted by 340bp due to the Rice business which was impacted by higher raw material prices (mainly in North America) as well as a weaker Pasta performance and higher logistics costs in the US. By division, Rice recorded +16% in sales and a 516bp EBITDA margin contraction to 9.2%. Pasta recorded +7% in sales and a 316bp EBITDA margin contraction to 9.8% (in Europe, Pasta consumption was negatively impacted by the hot weather, the group e

Q2 disappoints

H1 update: revenue grew by 2.3% (+5.5% in Q2), whereas EBITDA contracted by 16.6%. The EBITDA margin stood at 11.2%. By division, the Rice business’s sales were up +2.6% in Q2, whereas the EBITDA margin contracted vs. Q1 to 12%. In Pasta, sales were up +8% in Q2 (partially helped by easier comps) while the EBITDA margin stood at 11.1% (vs. 11.8% in Q1). Net profit for the period is down 17.1%.

Q1 disappoints

Q1 update: net sales grew +1.3% (+3% excluding FX), whereas the EBITDA margin contracted 220bp to 12.6%. By division, Rice recorded +1.9% growth in net sales and a 450bp EBITDA margin contraction to 13% (Q4: 14.1%) due to the substantial increase in cost of raw materials (c.+22% inflation) as well as increased logistic costs and a shortage of plant workers in the US (high demand for electricians following the hurricanes). Pasta recorded -3.6% in sales with a 20bp contraction in the EBITDA margi

FY in line, sees increase in rice prices

FY update: sales are up 1.9% (Q4: 5.8%) with the EBITDA margin up by 30bp to 14.3% (in line with 9M). By division, Rice recorded +4.8% in sales with the EBITDA margin at 15.3% (stable yoy). Pasta recorded -1.4% in sales and a 70bp progression in the EBITDA margin to 13.4%. Garofalo continues to register double-digit growth. Net profit is up 30% due to US tax regime benefits (c. €50.6m gain). The new tax reform will benefit the company through a reduction in outgoing tax payments of around $15

Q3 impacted by hurricanes

Q3 update: sales are down 3.5% and the EBITDA margin contracted by 60bp on the back of the Rice business which was impacted by higher raw material prices and hurricanes in the US. By division, Rice recorded -5.6% in sales and an 80bp EBITDA margin contraction. Pasta recorded -2.1% in sales and a -30bp in EBITDA margin. After 9M, the group’s sales are up 0.6%, whereas the EBITA margin is 14.3%. For the FY, the group expects a turnover of €2.51bn (slightly lower than our forecast of €2.53bn), a

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