Consensus-beating Q1, guidance unchanged

Sanofi’s Q1 results were ahead of expectations, with growth largely being driven by Dupixent, along with positive contributions from Vaccines and Consumer Healthcare. Still, 2023 guidance was maintained. Overall, we re-iterate our positive stance on Sanofi, drawing comfort from Dupixent’s robust growth prospects, strong position in Vaccines, a healthy balance sheet and expectations of improvement in R&D execution, especially given the recent successes and the change of R&D head. The re-rating th

Hardman & Co Monthly: April 2023

Feature article: 2022 Pharma Statistics - 8.7% growth – but worrying signs An efficient reporting system has seen all the listed multinational pharmaceutical companies announcing results for 2022, which has given us the opportunity to update our industry statistics and drug database. This report provides the first snapshot of the global and US rankings of the top 20 drug companies for 2022. 2022 was characterised by 8.7% underlying growth, offset by a large forex impact (-12%), due to USD stren

Soft Q4 + weak guidance but attractively-priced at present

Q4 sales fell short of expectations. Dupixent remained the key growth driver, supported by a good performance from Consumer Healthcare and somewhat offset by a weaker showing in Vaccines. Moreover, the 2023 guidance was weak. Nonetheless, given the healthy prospects of Dupixent, the strong positioning in Vaccines and the robust balance sheet, the firm has enough leeway to look for further growth opportunities. Sanofi looks attractively priced at the current levels, especially given the dissipati

Strong Q3 + full-year guidance upgraded

Q3 exceeded expectations, driven by a strong run for Dupixent and Vaccines, and resilient Consumer Healthcare. Consequently, the 2022 guidance was revised upwards. While some recent R&D setbacks in oncology, in addition to Zantac woes, could put more pressure on the CEO, our positive stance on the stock is supported by Dupixent’s sustained growth momentum – also backed by various newer indications in the pipeline, a dominance in vaccines and a healthy balance sheet.

Sanofi – down but certainly not out

In the last one month, Sanofi has corrected significantly vis-à-vis its Big Pharma peers. While sector-specific factors have contributed to this negative sentiment, potential fall-out from the Zantac litigations and continued R&D setbacks were the main pain-points. However, there are still plenty of positives to look forward to in this promising equity story, and we believe that this more than warranted correction has opened up an attractive entry point into the French pharma giant. Overall, our

Strong Q2; full-year outlook revised upwards

In Q2, Sanofi continued its solid growth momentum driven by a strong showing from Dupixent and the Consumer Healthcare Business. Although, Vaccines’ growth came in slightly lower than the other segments, this is not a reason to worry considering the underlying strength of the business, especially the flu vaccine. Moreover, the sustained profitability improvement meant that the firm’s transformation journey remained on track. Hence, our positive outlook on the stock is maintained.

Q1 - a good start to the year

Sanofi started 2022 on a good note, with solid growth being witnessed across the divisions. In Q1, Dupixent continued its good run, and was well-complemented by a recovering Consumer Healthcare business. While the individual Vaccines performance was slightly mixed, it remains well-poised to capitalize on recovering demand post the COVID-19 disruption. Overall, the firm’s transformation journey remains on track and, hence, our positive stock recommendation is maintained.

An encouraging 2021 + a promising outlook

Sanofi’s 2021 ended on a strong note, with positive takeaways across divisions. While there were some transient challenges in Q4, it doesn’t impact the firm’s performance momentum – also reflecting in a promising 2022 outlook. Overall, the firm remains on track to deliver on its business (transformation) promises and, hence, our positive stock recommendation is reinforced.

Strong Q3 powers another guidance upgrade

Sanofi reported an excellent Q3, with all divisions supporting the strong top-line momentum. Moreover, better sales and tight control over operations aided profitability improvements and, hence, underpinned another full-year outlook upgrade. While Sanofi has been (very) late in its COVID-19 vaccine ambitions, the strong potential in most other areas remains intact and supports our positive stock recommendation.

Strong Dupixent + Vaccines powers upward revision to outlook

Sanofi witnessed remarkable growth in Q2, with strong growth in the high-margin Dupixent and Vaccines business being complemented by the recovery in the consumer business. Moreover, the improving top-line and various cost control measures have led to a marked improvement in Q2 profitability, and thereby an upward revision to the full-year outlook. While resurfacing pandemic uncertainties may play spoilsport, additional catalysts in the form of the COVID-19 vaccine and Dupixent’s approval in newe

Stable Q1 21, full-year guidance maintained

Despite pertinent pandemic pressures and tough comps (due to panic buying), Sanofi reported decent growth in Q1 21 – driven by robust growth in the Dupixent and vaccine business. Moreover, profitability improved further due to the cost initiatives measures in place. While pandemic-induced uncertainties are here to stay, the group should find support from new launches and label and geographic expansion of key drugs. Additionally, success in the COVID-19 vaccine development space could prove anoth

Encouraging FY21 guidance; revival of slow-growing business on the cards

Despite the COVID-19-related disruption, the CEO’s bet on Dupixent and Vaccines paid off in Q4. The boss has now taken a shot to revitalise the slow-growing Consumer-healthcare and General-medicine businesses, along with additional cost-saving of €500m by FY22 – these measures should help Sanofi achieve its FY25 profitability target. The bolt-on strategy will continue to strengthen the pipeline, along with a key focus on six multi-blockbuster drugs. A breakthrough in the COVID-19 vaccine space c

Potential targets on Sanofi’s radar

In line with its strategy of expanding its focus on the immuno-oncology space and strengthening its internal R&D pipeline, Sanofi has spent €5.2bn on the acquisition of two small biotech firms ytd. Given that the French pharma giant still has gun powder of €30-50bn, a big ticket acquisition is highly likely, with Alexion being a good strategic fit in our view. Bolt-on deals might also be on the cards and PTC Therapeutics, Inovio and Editas could be Sanofi’s hit list.

Influenza vaccine likely to drive H2 20

Q2 sales came under pressure due to de-stocking and lockdown-related disruptions across the segments, though the momentum was partly offset by a strong show in Dupixent. Combined with effective cost management, the operating margin expanded during the quarter. While a recovery to pre-COVID levels would take time, the rising risk of the second wave of Coronavirus and seasonal flu should ensure high demand for the high-margin Influenza vaccines in H2. Top this up with the COVID-19-related opportun

Moving towards innovative pharma-centric business

Sanofi’s MS partner Principia Biopharma (EV of $2.4bn) has been in the headlines as a potential takeover target. Given the French pharma’s swelling war chest and the strategic vision of the CEO, such rumours could have legs. In an attempt to increase its focus on innovative drugs, Sanofi has also started the divestment (through IPO) procedure of the world’s second-largest API company (valued at $2bn).

Initial Equity Trading Comments - 15 May 2023

LIBERUM: Aptamer* - Prelims supports growth projections

Kromek - Placing raises £7m with Open Offer of up to £1m

Kromek raised £7m (with up to £1m via an Open Offer) to strengthen the balance sheet and provide the working capital for the CT programme to bridge the gap before supply agreements with recently announced Tier 1 and Tier 2 OEMs commence in earnest. As the only independent commercial scale manufacturer of the next-generation detector (CZT) for use in CT and SPECT imaging systems, Kromek is actively engaged with 9 OEMs (both Tier 1 and Tier 2), with 3 agreements having now been signed (FC estimate

LIBERUM: Aptamer* - Initiation - Build better binders

Morning Note – 5 June 2023

Tristel - FDA approval: entering the world’s largest ultrasound market

Tristel received FDA clearance to market Tristel ULT as a high-level disinfectant (HLD) for use on endocavity ultrasound probes and skin surface transducers that may contact non-intact skin. This is a significant and arguably long-awaited, value-enhancing milestone for the company, enabling it to market DUO in the single largest ultrasound market in the world: a market with c.215m annual procedures and one that Tristel is very familiar with, given ultrasound accounts for c.50% of its annual reve

Oxford BioDynamics+ (OBD, House Stock, 17p) - Expanding applications

NetScientific - FY 2022 results, portfolio value increases 35%

NetScientific, an investment and commercialisation group with an international portfolio of innovative life science, sustainability, and technology companies announces its FY 2022 results demonstrating a 35% increase in portfolio value to £41.8m across an expanding portfolio of 24 companies. NSCI reports that its portfolio has raised c. £70m. In line with its capital light investment strategy, NSCI/EMV have supported these fund-raises selectively through £3.2m of direct investments and loans, an

2022 a year of progress

FY22 results were in line with expectations, with cash at period end of $9.8m, giving a cash runway into mid-24. Verici continues to demonstrate strong operational and strategic progress and transitioned from a research only company to a commercial revenue-generating company in January with the launch of its first product Tutivia. Notable progress has been made in securing reimbursement, including the proposed price of $2,650/test being significantly ahead of the assumed rate of $1,500 in our mo

Destiny Pharma plc (DEST) - House Stock at 35p - Stars aligning

Initial Equity Trading Comments - 10 May 2023

Avon Protection - Termination of coverage

Edison Investment Research is terminating coverage on Avon Protection (AVON), Osirium Technologies (OSI), IQE (IQE), Kopy Goldfields (KOBY) and RhoVac (ROHVAC). Please note you should no longer rely on any previous research or estimates for this company. All forecasts should now be considered redundant.

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 18 Apr 23

18 April 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment objectiv

Hybridan Small Cap Feast 5 June 2022

5th June 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment objectiv

Diaceutics - $10m Contract Win

Diaceutics has announced a new US$10.1m multi-year enterprise engagement with a top 10 global pharma company covering a wide range of Diaceutics' subscription data services to be delivered via the company's DXRX platform. The three-year contract includes additional options which could result in a significant increase in the scope and value of the contract.